Are Bitcoin and Gold Actually Correlated? - Crypto Global ...

Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call

As originally published via CoinLive
I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets.
At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time.
Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY
USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread
EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment
Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long?
USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread
The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF.
Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to:
Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating.
While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis.
I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary.
If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year.
Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger
The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled The Paradox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets."
However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass.
Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b.
Interest Rates Set to Rise Further
First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging."
Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png)
Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve.
While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode.
Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png)
Deutsche Bank - End of the Road?
Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states:
"One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%."
There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models.
One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below:
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png)
Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png)
Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences
Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals.
Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports.
Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years.
As the author states:
"I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commodities haven not been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. "
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png)
Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run
It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018.
The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below:
"Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place."
Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course."
It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments.
Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility
Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital.
Anyone Can Be Wrong Datadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone
Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March.
"It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When."
Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line.
On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

[Manipulation] Notes on the transparency of Tether and Bitcoin market manipulation

I would like to share some alarming signs of Bitcoin price manipulation.
Bitcoin price is about 10 times of what it was a year ago. The exchange that decisively sets Bitcoin price is Bitfinex, a secretive institution with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organization.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs0oGXQWAAAqMRZ.jpg
Bitfinex had its wire services suspended by Wells Fargo in April. To resume trading, Bitfinex enlisted the help of Tether, another company with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organisation, but based on announcements is likely under common share holder control with Bitfinex. Tether sells crypto-tokens known as USD Tethers, or USDTs, that are purportedly backed by an equal number of US dollars. In other words, each USDT is a digital good priced at USD 1.00.
Despite the promise of "100% reserve" and the vague reference to "24×7 access to your funds" on Tether’s website, there is no contractual right, either tacit or express, for one USDT to be redeemed for one US dollar. It is probably through this legal construct that Tether hopes to characterise its USDTs as digital goods and not "convertible" virtual currency covered by FinCEN regulations.
The invention of USDTs led to the proliferation of numerous crypto-currency exchanges. Examples include Bitfinex, Binance, HitBTC, KKex, Poloniex, and YoBit. Instead of providing crypto-to-fiat trading pairs, these "coin-to-coin" exchanges offer crypto-to-tether trading exclusively. Therefore, USDTs not only help these exchanges remove the need for formal banking arrangement, but also enables these exchanges to organise in lesser known jurisdictions (e.g., the Republic of Seychelles) and operate outside of the regulation and supervision of major economies. Most of these exchanges claim to screen-off visitors from the United States and other countries with laws on coin-to-coin trading, but the screen-off is often perfunctory. In almost all cases, the screen can be defeated with a simple mouse click.
It is doubtful that these exchanges perform meaningful due diligence beyond identity verification to combat money laundering, financing of terrorism, and corruption of politically exposes persons. Bitfinex, for example, requires no identity verification at all for most trading activities and imposes no trading amount limits on unverified accounts. The enablement of these exchanges where rampant money laundering is possible is outside of the scope of this note. Instead, I would like to bring to your attention the distinct possibility that Bitfinex, as the likely controller of Tether, is a bad actor.
Strong circumstantial evidence suggests that Bitfinex is creating USDTs out of thin air to prop up Bitcoin prices. Namely, Bitfinex is likely acting as a central bank that issues a fiat money called USDTs. The sole mandate of this central bank is to enrich itself through market manipulation.
https://i.imgur.com/b1Pdsq9.jpg
The first image (above) illustrates how mysterious amounts of USDTs were minted and injected into Bitfinex at precise moments when a crash seemed imminent.
https://i.imgur.com/jAyPlF8.jpg
The second image (above) illustrates a strong correlation (but admittedly not causation) between the total amount of USDTs in circulation and Bitcoin price.
Bitfinex released an internal memo in September to allay concerns that USDTs might have been created at will. The memo purportedly shows that Tether maintained sufficient US dollars to match all USDTs in circulation as of a day in September. The memo, however, is of no probative value. Among other strange things, the author of the memo didn’t verify with banks (names redacted) that account balances from Tethers were in fact correct, couldn’t promise that the balances weren’t overnight borrowings for purposes of producing the memo, and couldn’t promise that Tether indeed had access to those funds.
I therefore urge you to consider the possibility that the current price of Bitcoin is the result of Bitfinex’s manipulation and may collapse when regulators take action.
For example, Tether is almost certainly an administrator of virtual currency — it centrally puts into and withdraws from circulation USDTs, a virtual currency squarely intended as a substitute for real currency as admitted by Tether in the internal memo.
Tether has nominally registered as a money transmitter with FinCEN, but it is unclear if they fulfill any of the BSA filing requirements (e.g., filing SARs).2 As a company, Tether’s USDTs enables large crypto-currency exchanges (including US-based exchanges like Poloniex) to exist and powers trades thereon in the amount of millions every day. So it wouldn’t be surprising if FinCEN eventually decides to enforce its rules against Tether as it did against Liberty Reserve.
Further, CFTC approved recently various swap execution facilities, designated contract markets and derivative clearing organizations with Bitcoin flavor. And the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is expected to launch cash-settled futures on Bitcoin soon. Manipulation of Bitcoin prices referenced by these entities is prosecutable by the CFTC, an agency with broad statutory authority to prosecute manipulation of commodity prices under the Commodity Exchange Act (including Section 753 as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act.).
Although none of these CFTC-registered entities are currently including Bitfinex in the calculation of their Bitcoin reference rates (CME used to), it is well understood and could be easily established (partially because of the transparency of Bitcoin blockchain) that Bitfinex-initiated price movements ripple through all exchanges via manual and automated trading.3 CFTC could then have grounds to investigate Bitfinex’s possible manipulation of Bitcoin price via Tether.
If you are considering investing into Bitcoin at this time, please look closer at the exchanges involved in price discovery and give it a second thought.
submitted by Yanlii to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Consensus Network EP35: Cryptocurrency and Asymmetric Risk with Teeka Tiwari

Catch the full episode: https://www.consensusnetwork.io/podcastepisodes/2019/9/8/ep35-cryptocurrency-and-asymmetric-risk-with-teeka-tiwari
Buck: Welcome back to the show everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula Podcast is no stranger to the show. He's a guy who grew up in foster care and came over the US at the age of 16 with just 150 bucks in his pocket and the clothes on his back. And then by the age of 18 becomes the youngest employee at Lehman Brothers. By 20 he becomes the youngest vice president in Lehman history. Later in his career he goes on to launch successful hedge fund and lived the Wall Street dream. I mean he's known on Wall Street as the guy who's made a fortune on what is known as asymmetric risk which is what we’re going to talk about in quite a bit and for the rest of us, for many of us that is, he is best known for being the editor of the Palm Beach confidential newsletter which focuses on digital currencies and I am a subscriber to this by the way. Teeka, welcome back to Wealth Formula Podcast, Teeka Tiwari.
Teeka: Thanks Buck. It’s a pleasure to be here and thank you for having me.
Buck: Yeah so you know you were on not too long ago and some people are listening to the stuff about cannabis and they're probably thinking to themselves, why is this guy talking about cannabis and digital currencies like what is his specialty? In fact the way I'm thinking about this there's one main thing that they have in common, they're both in this area that you call and we call asymmetric risk which is really your thing. Discuss what that means and if you would how have you applied it to your own growth and ultimately to your own wealth.
Teeka: So before I get into asymmetric risk I want to talk about how I discovered asymmetric risk and how I changed the way that I yeah. So when I was in my 20s I developed a lot of wealth by taking massive risk in the stock options and commodities market. And I would bet huge positions. And then that all came to an end in the late 90s when I was on the wrong side of a series of trades that were triggered by the Asian financial crisis which ultimately compelled me to file for bankruptcy. And so I had lost about ten years of wealth creation which was considerable at the time. And what I learned was that I had to change my approach that I couldn't get it all every single time otherwise I would never get off this boom-and-bust merry-go-round. So what I realized was is that I would I would build the portfolio of somewhat safer more income oriented investments and then I would focus on these ideas that are called asymmetric risk trade. So what's an asymmetric risk trade? An asymmetric risk trade is where you can take a relatively trivial sum of money and if the idea doesn't work out it doesn't impact your net your net worth or your day-to-day lifestyle in any way shape or form. But the asymmetric part of it is is that if it does work out it can absolutely move the needle on your net worth. So an example of that would be something like neo which I recommended at around 12 cents that ended up going up to about a hundred and sixty one dollars so that's something that you could have put a thousand dollars in and turn it into over a million dollars. That's a classic asymmetric trade. So what I what I tell my readers is you can't build your whole portfolio around high-risk asymmetric trades. But if you take let's say five to ten percent of your liquid net worth and allocate it to these types of situations in a and one of the things I talk about is using uniform position sizing, what you put yourself in the position to do is absolutely grow your network sometimes three four five six X without putting your current lifestyle at risk and it is a sweet spot of wealth creation that I've created and popularized now for several years that has not only transformed my financial life but the financial life of many of my readers.
Buck: So as you know Teeka my group the Wealth Formula Group in general I mean there's a lot of people who are well-to-do they're you know accredited investors they have you know typically probably more money to invest than others they're you know and I say this because there is a little bit of a difference there when it comes to somebody who's barely getting by living check to check, that there is an opportunity in your portfolio to say okay what percentage of this portfolio could I put in that I mean listen if I lose it no big deal I mean I won't be happy about it but it won't hurt me that much on the other hand this could explode. Now when you look at it from the perspective of somebody who's got a fair amount of money and link who's investing you know several hundred thousand dollars a year or maybe a million dollars or something like that like what do you think is a reasonable amount of a portfolio? Like I know for example that even universities are getting into this and they're looking at hey maybe you know 1/2 of 1% or something like that I mean I know you're not in the business of giving financial advice but I'm just curious kind of what your approach would be in terms of allocation.
Teeka: So again generally speaking I would say 5 to 10% of your liquid net worth. So let's say you've got a business that kicks out a million a year that you have to allocate for your investment 50 to $100,000. Definitely nobody likes to lose 50 or a hundred thousand dollars but it's not going to have a material impact on your lifestyle but if you invest 50 to $100,000 and these asymmetric bets pay off you're talking about five six seven eight ten twelve million dollars in returns on what is a relatively tiny investment relative to your net worth and that is the beauty of this approach.
Buck: Yeah and and I'm glad you said that because that's exactly kind of where I'm at sort of lingering between five and ten percent you know and for me you know I I kind of put this in there about you know I kind of put this in that area with startups right I'm not gonna I'm not gonna have a separate category just for digital currencies but anything that is super high risk and high reward and I'm sitting about five or ten percent.
Teeka: That all goes into the same bucket so that's right that for everybody it's not just oh this is crypto currencies five to ten percent and startups is five to ten percent. No all go into the same bucket is asymmetric risk.
Buck: Yeah now okay so we kind of got ahead of ourselves and you know you haven't been on the show talking about crypto currency in a fair amount of time we have a lot more new listeners now so for those who know very little about cryptocurrency but they're smart they're sophisticated say they're a group of you know I know worth investors you're talking to you they've not heard about this how do you explain this in the most efficient way possible and what the significance of it is?
Teeka: Okay so that's a really big question.
Buck: Yeah no I don't but I bet you've answered it a few times.
Teeka: I'm gonna take a shot at it. So listen as a wealthy investor myself why would I want to bother with cryptocurrency? I'm already rich why do I want to mess around with this? So I'm gonna answer it from that perspective. One it's always nice to make more money. But two the bigger reason is, is what I want people to understand especially wealthy investors is that it's very rare to invest at the beginning of a brand-new asset class very very rare right it's brand-new asset classes though just don't come about. Digital currency is a brand-new asset class that has legs. So why does it have legs? It has legs because we have never had an asset class that is completely non correlated with the business cycle. It's never existed before. Every asset class in the world is somehow tied to the business cycle gold, industrial, metals, currencies, stocks, bonds, they're all tied to the business cycle in one way shape or form things like Bitcoin are not so why why does that make it valuable it makes it valuable because if you are pension fund you're allocating capital across traditional and non-traditional assets you still have this problem of deep correlation right the business cycle falls apart and you're taking hits across the board. So there have been studies that have shown just with a small allocation of Bitcoin anywhere from one to five percent across the portfolio even though Bitcoin is wildly volatile because it is not correlated and not tied to the business cycle it actually reduces your overall volatility and your overall risk in your portfolio and that is incredibly valuable. So just from a high level portfolio construction standpoint you will see the world's hedge funds, pension funds, massive allocators of capital start to move tiny slivers of their money into things like Bitcoin and we're talking tiny slivers of an 80 trillion dollar pie right it's in real terms its enormous money in relative terms relative to what they have under management it's a small amount but when you're coming off a base where the whole markets only worth 300 billion it doesn't take much to move the market. So that's from the high level that's why you must have some cryptocurrency. And then the next level beyond that is that mankind has never had an asset there's never been an asset we're a stronger man couldn't take it from a weaker man. So whether it was the caveman knocking one guy over the head for his shells or the government coming in in Venezuela and confiscating money or the Argentinian government saying oh we're having a holiday and taking all your assets from the bank something Brazil has done on multiple occasions. You know the everyday person has not had this ability to hold an asset that has been beyond the confiscationability of a government so something like Bitcoin and digital currency if you are smart and how you buy it if you don't talk about it you buy quietly and you store it appropriately it is absolutely impossible short of somebody putting a literally putting a gun next to your head for them to take that asset from you and that is remarkable because even if you've got a million dollars in gold and you somehow manage to hide it how are you gonna travel the world with a million dollars in gold how are you gonna spend a million dollars in gold you just gonna go to the store and break a piece off with a piece of pliers you just can't do that the beauty of digital currency is you can walk around with a thumb drive that big with a billion dollars in it and nobody knows and let's say hey oh I don't want to keep a billion in Bitcoin I want to do it in a stable coin fine put it in a stable coin. But this idea this portability of money and this complete ownership of an asset that nobody else has any ability to take from you that is valuable that is incredibly valuable.
Buck: So let me ask you a what may seem like a very basic simple question but I think it's worth asking. So why is it so volatile why is Bitcoin Ethereum for example why these are the major the two biggest by market cap why are they so volatile and you know to the extent that they are uncorrelated do you see that as a function of the size of the market cap or is it something else inherent about digital currencies that makes it this volatile?
Teeka: I think it's both. One they're relatively small so if for instance if you look at Microsoft in its early days it was a crazy volatile stock up 40% down 40% down 30% going through bear markets that lasted two years wrecking billions of dollars in value you look at the early days of Microsoft from the 80s into the mid 90s the stock was all over the place and then as the stock got bigger and more mature of course volatility tamp down so you will see that. So what I say with volatility is that welcomed that volatility without it the opportunity to make enormous amounts of money off a small amount of money won't exist. At some point Bitcoin and the theorem will move to this more blue chip status where maybe you make eight percent a year or six percent a year or something or something like that thank goodness we're not there yet. The other side of it is is that there you know the markets that are built around trading these are completely unregulated. They're wild. And there's all types of crazy manipulation that goes on in the market you have some Bitcoin whale let's sell a thousand coins and scare the market down and then let's go buy back 2000 coins it's the Wild West and somebody a skeptic might say well why do I want to buy now why don't I buy when the market calms down because when you buy when the market calms down and it's moved to this very highly regulated very low volatility asset it could have ten x between now and then. So yes there is volatility but I believe if you position size rationally you will be well rewarded for that moment for that volatility and that uncertainty.
Buck: So admittedly I was skeptical of cryptocurrency early on and you know I finally did get in and my timing was actually really good it was a fall early fall 2017 right before a massive bull run. And that of course was followed by what has been called crypto winter. So the question is, is winter over because it sure seems like it's an awful long thawing period I mean no we seem like to have gotten there but there's a stall is it over or do you still see some you know rocky shores ahead before there's a you know big move potentially to all-time highs?
Teeka: Well no crypto winter was over in April. I put out a report talking about that and I pinpointed when that happened it happened when Bitcoin broke its downtrend line. So if you go back and if you look at each of the so-called crypto winters or horrible bear markets that have been in the space Bitcoin will always lead the market first always and then the altcoins play catch up right so it feels worse than it is right now because the alt coins got crushed and many of them have stayed crushed they haven't come back that’s probably the most popular question I get take okay bitcoins up and it's you know been up as much as 400 percent this year but why aren't the old coins moving and my answer is because it's not yet time. If you look back at the data generally there is at least a six-month time lag between the time Bitcoin breaks its downtrend line and the time that the alt coins move higher. So that that next stage we'll be entering to in about October and you'll see a percolation in the alt coins and they'll start playing catch-up.
Buck: Does that also correlate Teeka with Bitcoin like an all-time high for Bitcoin though? I mean I mean obviously Bitcoin has recovered substantially we're like you know three four hundred percent up from you know where we were when Bitcoin was at you know three thousand. The question I have is and I have not looked at this history closely even though there's this recovery, do you have to start approaching all-time highs for those alts to really make their move is that what you've seen historically?
Teeka: No you look back when they all started playing catch up in 2016 Bitcoin was starting to move higher and then going into 2017 and then the alts really didn't start kicking in until around May and that's when they started moving and eventually the alts outpaced the type of action that was going on with bitcoins. So if we look back at how the altcoins move generally what happens is you have a new series of buyers that come into the market and they're all centered around Bitcoin. And that's happening right now. Kelly Lafleur just announced from backed that they're gonna have physically backed futures have been approved September 23rd I believe is the date that they're actually gonna start trading. So this brings in a whole new group of traders a whole new group of investors and then so they start getting their feet with Bitcoin and all of a sudden they're there they might not even know anything about alt coins Buck that that's the thing right for a lot of people out there to them when they think digital currency the only thing they really think of is Bitcoin.
Buck: So as the alt coins are just anything that's not Bitcoin for anybody what we keep talking about so anything Ethereum, any other and any other token that's not Bitcoin generally it's called an altcoin.
Teeka: Right so as they come in they start getting exposed to these other coins and then they start playing with them and they start investing and then they start trading with them and all of a sudden people look at look at Bitcoin and they look at something else it's a little bit smaller and they say okay let's let's play around here and then you start seeing this broadening of the rally.
Buck: So you think that this time around though specifically I know you you you're part of your thesis is that this time around may be different because you know bigger money institutional money, but one of the things that we've really looked at or you've looked at and talked about is you know one of the limitations to big money coming into this stuff is custodianship but the altcoins a lot of the old coins most of them are not gonna have that kind of infrastructure so does that I mean just playing devil's advocate does that then say well they may just stick to whatever they can buy on Coinbase and Bakkt.
Teeka: Well they have well these coins most of the all coins are ERC 20 coins so in terms of having the infrastructure as long as you can support ERC 20 you can support hundreds of coins that currently trade and so if you look at what Bakkt is doing they're gonna be supporting Bitcoin first and then they're going to be supporting Ethereum. So if they support a theory they will naturally support every other ERC20 that's out there and remember companies like Bakkt they're in the business of incentivizing trading because they get paid for everything that that goes through their network. So it would be odd to imagine that they're only going to limit their entire business models with just the trading of Bitcoin it doesn't make any sense. If you look at what they've done in the securities market they haven't just limited themselves to the trading of the S&P 500 they trade everything so I do think that liquidity will trickle down into the whole market and of course the ERC 20 coins I think will be the first to get the most amount of liquidity because it will be the easiest to support from from a back end technology standpoint. The other thing I want to mention is that another driver of the alt coins would be what I believe will be a proliferation of securitization products. So ETF's different types of futures I see a world I've gotta believe within the next 12 months we will see an ETF that will give us the ability to own 20 30 40 maybe 50 coins in one ETF that trades or one type of security that trades maybe it's a coin put out by back and says okay you buy this coin and you've got the top hundred altcoins exposure to the top hundred alt coins.
Buck: Right and then you know I know a lot of people bring do you talk about the ETF for Bitcoin and this has been sort of bounce back but yeah you know we're delayed with the SEC several times do you really think of that as a big deal compared to some of the other movements that you you mentioned Bakkt and I think there's LedgerX things like that where that are allowing for institutional buyers to dissipate is an etf really make much of a difference in your view?
Teeka: I think an ETF is important but I think the SEC is becoming less important in that process and I'll tell you why. Several very large brokerage firms from the Fidelity to eTrade to TD Ameritrade have announced that they want to offer Bitcoin trading to their users. So I'm talking about a system where you can log in click on a button on your Fidelity account and you can start trading Bitcoin the way you with the sp500. Once that comes out let's assume it comes out this year which they've talked about but they want to do it this year but we'll see everything seems to run a little slower than people think. But if that that comes out this year and something like 15 to 20 million people can now trade Bitcoin directly from their brokerage accounts to me it makes an ETF a foregone conclusion because the SEC has no reason now to stand in the way of it. And that's what I'm think that they're waiting for Buck the SEC is not known for blazing a trail the SEC is not known for moving ahead of the market. So if they can look and say well Fidelity is offering it TD Ameritrade is offering it Schwab is offering it we are asses covered if we approve an ETF I think it's really a CYA problem with the SEC they don't want to be the first to make this move and let's say there's a problem with it and everybody blames the SEC.
Buck: You know there is this product data that I know of maybe you could talk about this because then you know in the context of an ETF and being able to buy Bitcoin easily you know.
Teeka: I look at the there's a grayscale Bitcoin trust gbtc which is publicly traded I mean what's the difference what am I missing there I mean that's a closed-end fund that has limited liquidity and sometimes trade at a hundred percent premium.
Buck: Yeah okay so lots of things happening in the spaces you mentioned and one of the things that I think that that you said that is very seems very clearly true whether or not what you know whether or not you believe there's gonna be another bull market is there's a ton of of Technology improvements and infrastructure and all these things that are going on and price mean a lot more by the way then back in 2017 when prices were off the charts so within that context what are you know say they the one or two things that are you most excited about in the space that gives you the greatest confidence that this is you know this is the the new you know the new dot-com era I guess after the rebels fell as you mentioned before offline and you know the rise of the Amazons and the apples in the crypto world.
Teeka: I'll tell you why it's because I'm finally seeing major corporations real corporations doing partnerships with crypto companies not memorandums of understanding MOU’s are meaningless but real partnerships where they're actually using the technology this is stuff i talked about a year ago. Eighteen and a half months ago I said like real companies are going to start coming into this space they're gonna start partnering with some of these companies and start using the technology and it's happening. I'm seeing real businesses like Barclays put up their own money to back certain platforms I was like for instance with trade finance. BMW putting up their own money for back in logistics. So this is a huge shift in in in the type of person that is getting involved in the marketplace. I'm seeing massive credit card processors get involved with tiny startups because they want to piggy back what's going on and the markets that they're opening up with with their with their applications. So this to me Buck is is such a difference maker right like if we came into 2019 and none of these deals were happening I would say I would be on here and I would say buck you know what the cake just isn't baked yet man we just probably gotta wait another year. But when I start seeing very large very smart corporate players making strategic moves to align themselves to certain projects, you can't ignore that. This is something you can't ignore. And so this is what has me incredibly excited for this next phase that I see taking place in crypto.
Buck: You know one of the one things that you mentioned earlier and you've mentioned in the past which I agree with generally speaking is that you know some level of regulation is a good thing so that it becomes less of a manipulated market. So it becomes something that you know larger big money investors and institutional investors take an interest in because they don't want to be in something that's you know that's that's not legit. There is a negative a little bit to that and that some opportunities out there are you know start or you're starting to get restricted in terms of American investors. You know one of the examples I can think of to me is one of what I'm probably one of the biggest things is Binance which is you know the number one trading platform in the world is now effectively you know saying US investors we'll see you later we're gonna build something you know sometime and we're gonna call it you know Binance US and we're gonna have a lot fewer tokens there what concerns me is an investor in some of the various digital currencies at that point is well how does that affect my liquidity as a US investor and I'm wondering how it is affecting your your portfolio?
Teeka: Okay so there's a couple of things around that and I can't advise people to do this I can only report on what some people are doing to get around this geofencing. They're using Virtual Private Networks. With the use of a virtual private network can get access to any exchange in the world so long as they're using a VPN that mimics a country that this exchange is allowed to operate in. So as far as I know Binance is not doing anything to prevent anybody from using a VPN so just want to get that out there.
Buck: Jut to interrupt there I mean that that in itself is a little tricky though right I mean isn't it because then you've got to deal with you know US taxes and all that if you're dealing…
Teeka: Well you always have to deal with US taxes no matter what whether you're using a VPN or not.
Buck: So it wouldn't be illegal technically to use Virtual Private Network to use Binance?
Teeka: For me as an individual would I be breaking any laws, I don't think so but I'm not an attorney. Binance might be breaking some laws or but I don't think that I would be but again this is something everybody has to make their own decision with. But the other side of this is that by Nance is putting together their own decks which is a decentralized exchange which will allow for peer-to-peer trading and I think you'll see more of these types of decentralized exchanges which I'm a big fan of I hate the idea of centralized exchanges anyway. So there are some speed problems with decentralized exchanges but they're getting ironed out and I think within in the future a lot of trading is going to move to peer-to-peer but you're right it's certainly a concern for now I would say the biggest solution that I have read about and again I can't formally tell people to do this is to use a virtual private network.
Buck: The other question though I think as just as a follow-up on that Teeka is that okay so say you use a VPN but not everybody's gonna do that you know probably most people aren't gonna do that didn't then there's an issues just in terms of liquidity right or don't you think that's a problem anymore?
Teeka: I do think it's a problem but I also rely on the greed factor of the participants in this market that they will figure out a solution because there's too much money to be made for liquidity that wants to come into the market somebody will find a way to bring that liquidity into that okay so anyway so like you you know I believe that Bitcoin bull run is inevitable what do you think of anything what are you looking for that might trigger and I know you you're saying already that we're kind of in a bull market already but what triggers that sort of next level all-time high thing is there anything or do you think this is something that's gonna be more of a gradual rise or organic than it was in 2017?
Teeka: Well there are several things which I'm gonna be talking about specifically I don't really want to spill the beans on that here but I have an event coming up which I talk in more detail about a very specific event that I think will act as a massive catalyst. Outside of that I think this whole idea of I call it this kind of new narrative right among institutions where before two years ago three years ago they looked at Bitcoin and they said oh my gosh Bitcoin that's for Gun Runners and pornographers where we we have no interest in Bitcoin. And now they're starting to see Bitcoin as a way to eliminate this correlation risk in their portfolio. So I think that narrative will gain more ground in fact I've been invited to a conference in San Moritz with 500 top-tier investors and I will be putting forward that research that I've drawn together to that audience and really helping propagate that narrative because it is transformational if you manage a large pool of capital what you can do with your overall volatility and how you can adjust it lower through just a tiny amount of Bitcoin is absolutely remarkable. So I think that's more of a slow burn Buck, but as that gains speed I mean can you just imagine just the amount of buying if pension funds say okay going forward half of 1% of all our assets are going to be in digital currency.
Buck: I mean in part of part of understanding that for people is to understand one of the the great things about Bitcoin in particular is that this is an asset with that is fixed to a certain number of Bitcoin that'll ever be created so you know we've never really had a that kind of monetary thing before I mean to a certain extent gold is that way of course but even you know gold there's always more gold every year a little bit more gold. This is a truly deflationary asset that really where you know you put more money in the pot you know each one of those bitcoins gonna be worth a lot more and that I can't think of anything else that's out there like that.
Teeka: I agree.
Buck: I know you've got you know the the Palm Beach Confidential Newsletter Teeka I just have to compliment you because I you know I have been a reader for a couple years it is one of the most comprehensive and thoughtful investment newsletters I've ever subscribed to. I mean it is totally the real deal and I appreciate that and one of the things that people can't join any time and it opens and closes and I know that it is going to be opening up and you're going to do a webinar coming up on that but can you talk a little bit about the newsletter and the event that's coming up?
Teeka: Yeah sure so in the newsletter what I do is I will typically find one idea each month and give you a complete breakdown on the idea. And what I try to do I understand not everybody is a cryptocurrency enthusiastic of their currency investor and so what I try to do is write in a way that is easy to digest, easy to understand, not simplistic but very easy for the layperson to get their head around and to really understand the concept that we're talking about. And I have not opened up Palm Beach confidential for any new members for this whole year, this is the first time that I've done that and the reason is, is I only open up Palm Beach confidential to new members when there's an event that I think can have a massive impact on the broad market. So on September 18th at 8 p.m. I'm going to talk about one of these events and the last time this event took place you could literally take 500 dollars and turn it into five million dollars. There's only a few times in the history of crypto where you have those types of windows of opportunity and so one of those windows of opportunity is about to open and so at this event I'm gonna explain what it is why it works and why it will absolutely happen this particular event will absolutely happen there's nothing that can stop the event from taking place. And so I'm gonna share my five top coins, one of which I'll give away for free during the webinar that I think have that ability to go from five hundred dollars literally into five million. So it's an exciting time and I'm really kind of chomping at the bit to kind of get in front of everybody and talk about this research that I've discovered.
Buck: One last thing I want to point out is I get you know when we talk like this sometimes people get really skeptical they're like yeah that sounds a little salesy Buck that's not really kind of the usual thing that you're talking about and I get it right. The reality is this is a situation this isn't you know there are real people out there there are kids out there who've become multimillionaires by doing exactly this. And so it's real, that's why I'm interested.
Teeka: In my own investing I've seen a thousand dollar investment go to as much as 1.6 million dollars, ok so it's real. The other thing I want to convey to everybody I don't have to write newsletters anymore I don't have to come on podcast I can sit on a beach all I want ok. So why do I do this I do this because moving the needle on somebody's net worth maybe not this audience maybe my broader audience it's incredibly gratifying right helping people change their lives without putting their current lifestyle at risk that's I mean if that's my one legacy in this life could you ask for anything more Buck? Really it's incredibly gratifying to be able to do that and we have this opportunity now and but this opportunity won't last forever at some point this will be a multi trillion dollar asset class and the ability to make gains like that just won't exist.
Buck: Teeka, as always it's been a pleasure talking to you and thanks again for being on Wealth Formula Podcast.
Teeka: Thank you Buck.
Buck: We'll be right back.
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Wealth Formula Episode 175: Cryptocurrency and Asymmetric Risk with Teeka Tiwari

Wealth Formula Episode 175: Cryptocurrency and Asymmetric Risk with Teeka Tiwari

Catch the full episode: https://www.wealthformula.com/podcast/175-cryptocurrency-and-asymmetric-risk-with-teeka-tiwari/
Buck: Welcome back to the show everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula Podcast is no stranger to the show. He’s a guy who grew up in foster care and came over the US at the age of 16 with just 150 bucks in his pocket and the clothes on his back. And then by the age of 18 becomes the youngest employee at Lehman Brothers. By 20 he becomes the youngest vice president in Lehman history. Later in his career he goes on to launch successful hedge fund and lived the Wall Street dream. I mean he’s known on Wall Street as the guy who’s made a fortune on what is known as asymmetric risk which is what we’re going to talk about in quite a bit and for the rest of us, for many of us that is, he is best known for being the editor of the Palm Beach confidential newsletter which focuses on digital currencies and I am a subscriber to this by the way. Teeka, welcome back to Wealth Formula Podcast, Teeka Tiwari.
Teeka: Thanks Buck. It’s a pleasure to be here and thank you for having me.
Buck: Yeah so you know you were on not too long ago and some people are listening to the stuff about cannabis and they’re probably thinking to themselves, why is this guy talking about cannabis and digital currencies like what is his specialty? In fact the way I’m thinking about this there’s one main thing that they have in common, they’re both in this area that you call and we call asymmetric risk which is really your thing. Discuss what that means and if you would how have you applied it to your own growth and ultimately to your own wealth.
Teeka: So before I get into asymmetric risk I want to talk about how I discovered asymmetric risk and how I changed the way that I yeah. So when I was in my 20s I developed a lot of wealth by taking massive risk in the stock options and commodities market. And I would bet huge positions. And then that all came to an end in the late 90s when I was on the wrong side of a series of trades that were triggered by the Asian financial crisis which ultimately compelled me to file for bankruptcy. And so I had lost about ten years of wealth creation which was considerable at the time. And what I learned was that I had to change my approach that I couldn’t get it all every single time otherwise I would never get off this boom-and-bust merry-go-round. So what I realized was is that I would I would build the portfolio of somewhat safer more income oriented investments and then I would focus on these ideas that are called asymmetric risk trade. So what’s an asymmetric risk trade? An asymmetric risk trade is where you can take a relatively trivial sum of money and if the idea doesn’t work out it doesn’t impact your net your net worth or your day-to-day lifestyle in any way shape or form. But the asymmetric part of it is is that if it does work out it can absolutely move the needle on your net worth. So an example of that would be something like neo which I recommended at around 12 cents that ended up going up to about a hundred and sixty one dollars so that’s something that you could have put a thousand dollars in and turn it into over a million dollars. That’s a classic asymmetric trade. So what I what I tell my readers is you can’t build your whole portfolio around high-risk asymmetric trades. But if you take let’s say five to ten percent of your liquid net worth and allocate it to these types of situations in a and one of the things I talk about is using uniform position sizing, what you put yourself in the position to do is absolutely grow your network sometimes three four five six X without putting your current lifestyle at risk and it is a sweet spot of wealth creation that I’ve created and popularized now for several years that has not only transformed my financial life but the financial life of many of my readers.
Buck: So as you know Teeka my group the Wealth Formula Group in general I mean there’s a lot of people who are well-to-do they’re you know accredited investors they have you know typically probably more money to invest than others they’re you know and I say this because there is a little bit of a difference there when it comes to somebody who’s barely getting by living check to check, that there is an opportunity in your portfolio to say okay what percentage of this portfolio could I put in that I mean listen if I lose it no big deal I mean I won’t be happy about it but it won’t hurt me that much on the other hand this could explode. Now when you look at it from the perspective of somebody who’s got a fair amount of money and link who’s investing you know several hundred thousand dollars a year or maybe a million dollars or something like that like what do you think is a reasonable amount of a portfolio? Like I know for example that even universities are getting into this and they’re looking at hey maybe you know 1/2 of 1% or something like that I mean I know you’re not in the business of giving financial advice but I’m just curious kind of what your approach would be in terms of allocation.
Teeka: So again generally speaking I would say 5 to 10% of your liquid net worth. So let’s say you’ve got a business that kicks out a million a year that you have to allocate for your investment 50 to $100,000. Definitely nobody likes to lose 50 or a hundred thousand dollars but it’s not going to have a material impact on your lifestyle but if you invest 50 to $100,000 and these asymmetric bets pay off you’re talking about five six seven eight ten twelve million dollars in returns on what is a relatively tiny investment relative to your net worth and that is the beauty of this approach.
Buck: Yeah and and I’m glad you said that because that’s exactly kind of where I’m at sort of lingering between five and ten percent you know and for me you know I I kind of put this in there about you know I kind of put this in that area with startups right I’m not gonna I’m not gonna have a separate category just for digital currencies but anything that is super high risk and high reward and I’m sitting about five or ten percent.
Teeka: That all goes into the same bucket so that’s right that for everybody it’s not just oh this is crypto currencies five to ten percent and startups is five to ten percent. No all go into the same bucket is asymmetric risk.
Buck: Yeah now okay so we kind of got ahead of ourselves and you know you haven’t been on the show talking about crypto currency in a fair amount of time we have a lot more new listeners now so for those who know very little about cryptocurrency but they’re smart they’re sophisticated say they’re a group of you know I know worth investors you’re talking to you they’ve not heard about this how do you explain this in the most efficient way possible and what the significance of it is?
Teeka: Okay so that’s a really big question.
Buck: Yeah no I don’t but I bet you’ve answered it a few times.
Teeka: I’m gonna take a shot at it. So listen as a wealthy investor myself why would I want to bother with cryptocurrency? I’m already rich why do I want to mess around with this? So I’m gonna answer it from that perspective. One it’s always nice to make more money. But two the bigger reason is, is what I want people to understand especially wealthy investors is that it’s very rare to invest at the beginning of a brand-new asset class very very rare right it’s brand-new asset classes though just don’t come about. Digital currency is a brand-new asset class that has legs. So why does it have legs? It has legs because we have never had an asset class that is completely non correlated with the business cycle. It’s never existed before. Every asset class in the world is somehow tied to the business cycle gold, industrial, metals, currencies, stocks, bonds, they’re all tied to the business cycle in one way shape or form things like Bitcoin are not so why why does that make it valuable it makes it valuable because if you are pension fund you’re allocating capital across traditional and non-traditional assets you still have this problem of deep correlation right the business cycle falls apart and you’re taking hits across the board. So there have been studies that have shown just with a small allocation of Bitcoin anywhere from one to five percent across the portfolio even though Bitcoin is wildly volatile because it is not correlated and not tied to the business cycle it actually reduces your overall volatility and your overall risk in your portfolio and that is incredibly valuable. So just from a high level portfolio construction standpoint you will see the world’s hedge funds, pension funds, massive allocators of capital start to move tiny slivers of their money into things like Bitcoin and we’re talking tiny slivers of an 80 trillion dollar pie right it’s in real terms its enormous money in relative terms relative to what they have under management it’s a small amount but when you’re coming off a base where the whole markets only worth 300 billion it doesn’t take much to move the market. So that’s from the high level that’s why you must have some cryptocurrency. And then the next level beyond that is that mankind has never had an asset there’s never been an asset we’re a stronger man couldn’t take it from a weaker man. So whether it was the caveman knocking one guy over the head for his shells or the government coming in in Venezuela and confiscating money or the Argentinian government saying oh we’re having a holiday and taking all your assets from the bank something Brazil has done on multiple occasions. You know the everyday person has not had this ability to hold an asset that has been beyond the confiscationability of a government so something like Bitcoin and digital currency if you are smart and how you buy it if you don’t talk about it you buy quietly and you store it appropriately it is absolutely impossible short of somebody putting a literally putting a gun next to your head for them to take that asset from you and that is remarkable because even if you’ve got a million dollars in gold and you somehow manage to hide it how are you gonna travel the world with a million dollars in gold how are you gonna spend a million dollars in gold you just gonna go to the store and break a piece off with a piece of pliers you just can’t do that the beauty of digital currency is you can walk around with a thumb drive that big with a billion dollars in it and nobody knows and let’s say hey oh I don’t want to keep a billion in Bitcoin I want to do it in a stable coin fine put it in a stable coin. But this idea this portability of money and this complete ownership of an asset that nobody else has any ability to take from you that is valuable that is incredibly valuable.
Buck: So let me ask you a what may seem like a very basic simple question but I think it’s worth asking. So why is it so volatile why is Bitcoin Ethereum for example why these are the major the two biggest by market cap why are they so volatile and you know to the extent that they are uncorrelated do you see that as a function of the size of the market cap or is it something else inherent about digital currencies that makes it this volatile?
Teeka: I think it’s both. One they’re relatively small so if for instance if you look at Microsoft in its early days it was a crazy volatile stock up 40% down 40% down 30% going through bear markets that lasted two years wrecking billions of dollars in value you look at the early days of Microsoft from the 80s into the mid 90s the stock was all over the place and then as the stock got bigger and more mature of course volatility tamp down so you will see that. So what I say with volatility is that welcomed that volatility without it the opportunity to make enormous amounts of money off a small amount of money won’t exist. At some point Bitcoin and the theorem will move to this more blue chip status where maybe you make eight percent a year or six percent a year or something or something like that thank goodness we’re not there yet. The other side of it is is that there you know the markets that are built around trading these are completely unregulated. They’re wild. And there’s all types of crazy manipulation that goes on in the market you have some Bitcoin whale let’s sell a thousand coins and scare the market down and then let’s go buy back 2000 coins it’s the Wild West and somebody a skeptic might say well why do I want to buy now why don’t I buy when the market calms down because when you buy when the market calms down and it’s moved to this very highly regulated very low volatility asset it could have ten x between now and then. So yes there is volatility but I believe if you position size rationally you will be well rewarded for that moment for that volatility and that uncertainty.
Buck: So admittedly I was skeptical of cryptocurrency early on and you know I finally did get in and my timing was actually really good it was a fall early fall 2017 right before a massive bull run. And that of course was followed by what has been called crypto winter. So the question is, is winter over because it sure seems like it’s an awful long thawing period I mean no we seem like to have gotten there but there’s a stall is it over or do you still see some you know rocky shores ahead before there’s a you know big move potentially to all-time highs?
Teeka: Well no crypto winter was over in April. I put out a report talking about that and I pinpointed when that happened it happened when Bitcoin broke its downtrend line. So if you go back and if you look at each of the so-called crypto winters or horrible bear markets that have been in the space Bitcoin will always lead the market first always and then the altcoins play catch up right so it feels worse than it is right now because the alt coins got crushed and many of them have stayed crushed they haven’t come back that’s probably the most popular question I get take okay bitcoins up and it’s you know been up as much as 400 percent this year but why aren’t the old coins moving and my answer is because it’s not yet time. If you look back at the data generally there is at least a six-month time lag between the time Bitcoin breaks its downtrend line and the time that the alt coins move higher. So that that next stage we’ll be entering to in about October and you’ll see a percolation in the alt coins and they’ll start playing catch-up.
Buck: Does that also correlate Teeka with Bitcoin like an all-time high for Bitcoin though? I mean I mean obviously Bitcoin has recovered substantially we’re like you know three four hundred percent up from you know where we were when Bitcoin was at you know three thousand. The question I have is and I have not looked at this history closely even though there’s this recovery, do you have to start approaching all-time highs for those alts to really make their move is that what you’ve seen historically?
Teeka: No you look back when they all started playing catch up in 2016 Bitcoin was starting to move higher and then going into 2017 and then the alts really didn’t start kicking in until around May and that’s when they started moving and eventually the alts outpaced the type of action that was going on with bitcoins. So if we look back at how the altcoins move generally what happens is you have a new series of buyers that come into the market and they’re all centered around Bitcoin. And that’s happening right now. Kelly Lafleur just announced from backed that they’re gonna have physically backed futures have been approved September 23rd I believe is the date that they’re actually gonna start trading. So this brings in a whole new group of traders a whole new group of investors and then so they start getting their feet with Bitcoin and all of a sudden they’re there they might not even know anything about alt coins Buck that that’s the thing right for a lot of people out there to them when they think digital currency the only thing they really think of is Bitcoin.
Buck: So as the alt coins are just anything that’s not Bitcoin for anybody what we keep talking about so anything Ethereum, any other and any other token that’s not Bitcoin generally it’s called an altcoin.
Teeka: Right so as they come in they start getting exposed to these other coins and then they start playing with them and they start investing and then they start trading with them and all of a sudden people look at look at Bitcoin and they look at something else it’s a little bit smaller and they say okay let’s let’s play around here and then you start seeing this broadening of the rally.
Buck: So you think that this time around though specifically I know you you you’re part of your thesis is that this time around may be different because you know bigger money institutional money, but one of the things that we’ve really looked at or you’ve looked at and talked about is you know one of the limitations to big money coming into this stuff is custodianship but the altcoins a lot of the old coins most of them are not gonna have that kind of infrastructure so does that I mean just playing devil’s advocate does that then say well they may just stick to whatever they can buy on Coinbase and Bakkt.
Teeka: Well they have well these coins most of the all coins are ERC 20 coins so in terms of having the infrastructure as long as you can support ERC 20 you can support hundreds of coins that currently trade and so if you look at what Bakkt is doing they’re gonna be supporting Bitcoin first and then they’re going to be supporting Ethereum. So if they support a theory they will naturally support every other ERC20 that’s out there and remember companies like Bakkt they’re in the business of incentivizing trading because they get paid for everything that that goes through their network. So it would be odd to imagine that they’re only going to limit their entire business models with just the trading of Bitcoin it doesn’t make any sense. If you look at what they’ve done in the securities market they haven’t just limited themselves to the trading of the S&P 500 they trade everything so I do think that liquidity will trickle down into the whole market and of course the ERC 20 coins I think will be the first to get the most amount of liquidity because it will be the easiest to support from from a back end technology standpoint. The other thing I want to mention is that another driver of the alt coins would be what I believe will be a proliferation of securitization products. So ETF’s different types of futures I see a world I’ve gotta believe within the next 12 months we will see an ETF that will give us the ability to own 20 30 40 maybe 50 coins in one ETF that trades or one type of security that trades maybe it’s a coin put out by back and says okay you buy this coin and you’ve got the top hundred altcoins exposure to the top hundred alt coins.
Buck: Right and then you know I know a lot of people bring do you talk about the ETF for Bitcoin and this has been sort of bounce back but yeah you know we’re delayed with the SEC several times do you really think of that as a big deal compared to some of the other movements that you you mentioned Bakkt and I think there’s LedgerX things like that where that are allowing for institutional buyers to dissipate is an etf really make much of a difference in your view?
Teeka: I think an ETF is important but I think the SEC is becoming less important in that process and I’ll tell you why. Several very large brokerage firms from the Fidelity to eTrade to TD Ameritrade have announced that they want to offer Bitcoin trading to their users. So I’m talking about a system where you can log in click on a button on your Fidelity account and you can start trading Bitcoin the way you with the sp500. Once that comes out let’s assume it comes out this year which they’ve talked about but they want to do it this year but we’ll see everything seems to run a little slower than people think. But if that that comes out this year and something like 15 to 20 million people can now trade Bitcoin directly from their brokerage accounts to me it makes an ETF a foregone conclusion because the SEC has no reason now to stand in the way of it. And that’s what I’m think that they’re waiting for Buck the SEC is not known for blazing a trail the SEC is not known for moving ahead of the market. So if they can look and say well Fidelity is offering it TD Ameritrade is offering it Schwab is offering it we are asses covered if we approve an ETF I think it’s really a CYA problem with the SEC they don’t want to be the first to make this move and let’s say there’s a problem with it and everybody blames the SEC.
Buck: You know there is this product data that I know of maybe you could talk about this because then you know in the context of an ETF and being able to buy Bitcoin easily you know.
Teeka: I look at the there’s a grayscale Bitcoin trust gbtc which is publicly traded I mean what’s the difference what am I missing there I mean that’s a closed-end fund that has limited liquidity and sometimes trade at a hundred percent premium.
Buck: Yeah okay so lots of things happening in the spaces you mentioned and one of the things that I think that that you said that is very seems very clearly true whether or not what you know whether or not you believe there’s gonna be another bull market is there’s a ton of of Technology improvements and infrastructure and all these things that are going on and price mean a lot more by the way then back in 2017 when prices were off the charts so within that context what are you know say they the one or two things that are you most excited about in the space that gives you the greatest confidence that this is you know this is the the new you know the new dot-com era I guess after the rebels fell as you mentioned before offline and you know the rise of the Amazons and the apples in the crypto world.
Teeka: I’ll tell you why it’s because I’m finally seeing major corporations real corporations doing partnerships with crypto companies not memorandums of understanding MOU’s are meaningless but real partnerships where they’re actually using the technology this is stuff i talked about a year ago. Eighteen and a half months ago I said like real companies are going to start coming into this space they’re gonna start partnering with some of these companies and start using the technology and it’s happening. I’m seeing real businesses like Barclays put up their own money to back certain platforms I was like for instance with trade finance. BMW putting up their own money for back in logistics. So this is a huge shift in in in the type of person that is getting involved in the marketplace. I’m seeing massive credit card processors get involved with tiny startups because they want to piggy back what’s going on and the markets that they’re opening up with with their with their applications. So this to me Buck is is such a difference maker right like if we came into 2019 and none of these deals were happening I would say I would be on here and I would say buck you know what the cake just isn’t baked yet man we just probably gotta wait another year. But when I start seeing very large very smart corporate players making strategic moves to align themselves to certain projects, you can’t ignore that. This is something you can’t ignore. And so this is what has me incredibly excited for this next phase that I see taking place in crypto.
Buck: You know one of the one things that you mentioned earlier and you’ve mentioned in the past which I agree with generally speaking is that you know some level of regulation is a good thing so that it becomes less of a manipulated market. So it becomes something that you know larger big money investors and institutional investors take an interest in because they don’t want to be in something that’s you know that’s that’s not legit. There is a negative a little bit to that and that some opportunities out there are you know start or you’re starting to get restricted in terms of American investors. You know one of the examples I can think of to me is one of what I’m probably one of the biggest things is Binance which is you know the number one trading platform in the world is now effectively you know saying US investors we’ll see you later we’re gonna build something you know sometime and we’re gonna call it you know Binance US and we’re gonna have a lot fewer tokens there what concerns me is an investor in some of the various digital currencies at that point is well how does that affect my liquidity as a US investor and I’m wondering how it is affecting your your portfolio?
Teeka: Okay so there’s a couple of things around that and I can’t advise people to do this I can only report on what some people are doing to get around this geofencing. They’re using Virtual Private Networks. With the use of a virtual private network can get access to any exchange in the world so long as they’re using a VPN that mimics a country that this exchange is allowed to operate in. So as far as I know Binance is not doing anything to prevent anybody from using a VPN so just want to get that out there.
Buck: Jut to interrupt there I mean that that in itself is a little tricky though right I mean isn’t it because then you’ve got to deal with you know US taxes and all that if you’re dealing…
Teeka: Well you always have to deal with US taxes no matter what whether you’re using a VPN or not.
Buck: So it wouldn’t be illegal technically to use Virtual Private Network to use Binance?
Teeka: For me as an individual would I be breaking any laws, I don’t think so but I’m not an attorney. Binance might be breaking some laws or but I don’t think that I would be but again this is something everybody has to make their own decision with. But the other side of this is that by Nance is putting together their own decks which is a decentralized exchange which will allow for peer-to-peer trading and I think you’ll see more of these types of decentralized exchanges which I’m a big fan of I hate the idea of centralized exchanges anyway. So there are some speed problems with decentralized exchanges but they’re getting ironed out and I think within in the future a lot of trading is going to move to peer-to-peer but you’re right it’s certainly a concern for now I would say the biggest solution that I have read about and again I can’t formally tell people to do this is to use a virtual private network.
Buck: The other question though I think as just as a follow-up on that Teeka is that okay so say you use a VPN but not everybody’s gonna do that you know probably most people aren’t gonna do that didn’t then there’s an issues just in terms of liquidity right or don’t you think that’s a problem anymore?
Teeka: I do think it’s a problem but I also rely on the greed factor of the participants in this market that they will figure out a solution because there’s too much money to be made for liquidity that wants to come into the market somebody will find a way to bring that liquidity into that okay so anyway so like you you know I believe that Bitcoin bull run is inevitable what do you think of anything what are you looking for that might trigger and I know you you’re saying already that we’re kind of in a bull market already but what triggers that sort of next level all-time high thing is there anything or do you think this is something that’s gonna be more of a gradual rise or organic than it was in 2017?
Teeka: Well there are several things which I’m gonna be talking about specifically I don’t really want to spill the beans on that here but I have an event coming up which I talk in more detail about a very specific event that I think will act as a massive catalyst. Outside of that I think this whole idea of I call it this kind of new narrative right among institutions where before two years ago three years ago they looked at Bitcoin and they said oh my gosh Bitcoin that’s for Gun Runners and pornographers where we we have no interest in Bitcoin. And now they’re starting to see Bitcoin as a way to eliminate this correlation risk in their portfolio. So I think that narrative will gain more ground in fact I’ve been invited to a conference in San Moritz with 500 top-tier investors and I will be putting forward that research that I’ve drawn together to that audience and really helping propagate that narrative because it is transformational if you manage a large pool of capital what you can do with your overall volatility and how you can adjust it lower through just a tiny amount of Bitcoin is absolutely remarkable. So I think that’s more of a slow burn Buck, but as that gains speed I mean can you just imagine just the amount of buying if pension funds say okay going forward half of 1% of all our assets are going to be in digital currency.
Buck: I mean in part of part of understanding that for people is to understand one of the the great things about Bitcoin in particular is that this is an asset with that is fixed to a certain number of Bitcoin that’ll ever be created so you know we’ve never really had a that kind of monetary thing before I mean to a certain extent gold is that way of course but even you know gold there’s always more gold every year a little bit more gold. This is a truly deflationary asset that really where you know you put more money in the pot you know each one of those bitcoins gonna be worth a lot more and that I can’t think of anything else that’s out there like that.
Teeka: I agree.
Buck: I know you’ve got you know the the Palm Beach Confidential Newsletter Teeka I just have to compliment you because I you know I have been a reader for a couple years it is one of the most comprehensive and thoughtful investment newsletters I’ve ever subscribed to. I mean it is totally the real deal and I appreciate that and one of the things that people can’t join any time and it opens and closes and I know that it is going to be opening up and you’re going to do a webinar coming up on that but can you talk a little bit about the newsletter and the event that’s coming up?
Teeka: Yeah sure so in the newsletter what I do is I will typically find one idea each month and give you a complete breakdown on the idea. And what I try to do I understand not everybody is a cryptocurrency enthusiastic of their currency investor and so what I try to do is write in a way that is easy to digest, easy to understand, not simplistic but very easy for the layperson to get their head around and to really understand the concept that we’re talking about. And I have not opened up Palm Beach confidential for any new members for this whole year, this is the first time that I’ve done that and the reason is, is I only open up Palm Beach confidential to new members when there’s an event that I think can have a massive impact on the broad market. So on September 18th at 8 p.m. I’m going to talk about one of these events and the last time this event took place you could literally take 500 dollars and turn it into five million dollars. There’s only a few times in the history of crypto where you have those types of windows of opportunity and so one of those windows of opportunity is about to open and so at this event I’m gonna explain what it is why it works and why it will absolutely happen this particular event will absolutely happen there’s nothing that can stop the event from taking place. And so I’m gonna share my five top coins, one of which I’ll give away for free during the webinar that I think have that ability to go from five hundred dollars literally into five million. So it’s an exciting time and I’m really kind of chomping at the bit to kind of get in front of everybody and talk about this research that I’ve discovered.
Buck: One last thing I want to point out is I get you know when we talk like this sometimes people get really skeptical they’re like yeah that sounds a little salesy Buck that’s not really kind of the usual thing that you’re talking about and I get it right. The reality is this is a situation this isn’t you know there are real people out there there are kids out there who’ve become multimillionaires by doing exactly this. And so it’s real, that’s why I’m interested.
Teeka: In my own investing I’ve seen a thousand dollar investment go to as much as 1.6 million dollars, ok so it’s real. The other thing I want to convey to everybody I don’t have to write newsletters anymore I don’t have to come on podcast I can sit on a beach all I want ok. So why do I do this I do this because moving the needle on somebody’s net worth maybe not this audience maybe maybe my broader audience it’s incredibly gratifying right helping people change their lives without putting their current lifestyle at risk that’s I mean if that’s my one legacy in this life could you ask for anything more Buck? Really it’s incredibly gratifying to be able to do that and we have this opportunity now and but this opportunity won’t last forever at some point this will be a multi trillion dollar asset class and the ability to make gains like that just won’t exist.
Buck: Teeka, as always it’s been a pleasure talking to you and thanks again for being on Wealth Formula Podcast.
Teeka: Thank you Buck.
Buck: We’ll be right back.
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Online Sentiment Toward Crypto Market in 2019 — Attitudes Are Positive

Online Sentiment Toward Crypto Market in 2019 — Attitudes Are Positive
https://preview.redd.it/df5uq5q9v6f31.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=850703897711eba01cfe177773d8e75894161af8

Despite all of the bad press that the digital asset industry continues to receive on an almost daily basis, it appears as though the overall sentiment of the online communities in regard to this burgeoning domain is still pretty positive. For example, Comparitech — a research firm that provides its consumers with a host of specialized data that allows one to make more informed decisions — recently used a machine learning-based analysis tool to study more than 48K Redditposts to determine which cryptocurrencies were viewed most favorably by the masses. Not only that, the study also took into consideration a total of 7,500 crypto/blockchain-related articles from a variety of different national and international media outlets.


All of the posts, tweets and articles analyzed by the researchers were scored on the basis of their positive/negative sentiment — primarily in relation to other articles included in the study. In this regard, there were a few notable trends that jump out at the reader upon first glance. While over 85% of the analyzed Reddit posts were deemed to be positive in nature, articles published by various mainstream media publications such as HuffPost, Business Insider and The International Business Times were, by and large, dismissive of the crypto market.
To get a better overview of the matter, Cointelegraph has reached out to Craig Russo, owner of Peer, a Boston-based startup that is behind the popular crypto and gaming media outlet SludgeFeed. When asked about what the overall sentiment of the average social media user toward the crypto industry (at large) was like, Russo pointed out:
“While there will always be different camps or schools of thought on the crypto industry, the overall sentiment across social media continues to be bullish, both on future price growth and mainstream adoption of the technology.”
A similar point of view is also shared by Sritanshu Sinha, an independent crypto author and analyst, whose work has been shared online by the likes of John McAfee and Kim DotCom. Sinha pointed out that the overall reception that the crypto industry has received thus far on forums such as Reddit and Twitter has been quite warm. He is also quick to point out that, since the Reddit community as a whole views itself as being anti-establishment, the platform’s users are usually drawn to crypto much more than your average investor. Similarly, in the case of Twitter, he believes that there are a few independent analysts who have hundreds of thousands of followers and therefore have the power to influence the community toward fostering a positive view regarding various altcoins/digital offerings.

Has the public views on crypto changed over the years?

Another pertinent question is how the crypto industry’s general perception has evolved since the novel asset class came into the spotlight a few years back. For example, it is no secret that all through 2018, investor confidence in this space has been dwindling. However, Russo believes that Bitcoin’s (BTC) financial upswing over the last eight months has been a turning point for the industry, especially across different social media outlets. Further elaborating on his views, Russo added:
“This is in stark contrast to those invested in the altcoin markets, as many are in disbelief towards the poor performance of their assets. The regulatory environment definitely plays into the latter, as increasing pressure from the U.S. government has undoubtedly hurt investor interest in Bitcoin alternatives (i.e., Binance shutting down to U.S. customers).”
When compared to the previous years, the general sentiment toward the crypto sector has certainly become less hostile. For example, back in 2017, a time when Bitcoin was witnessing astronomical growth, the industry was still facing a lot of heat from many financial experts of differing pedigree. And while the market, at the time, was replete with countless scams(especially Twitter bots) such activities have largely died out now.
As mentioned earlier, a host of recent surveys seem to suggest that more than 80% of all crypto talk online is positive. This number seems abnormally large for an industry that is usually on the receiving end of a lot of criticism from various traditional media outlets. Sharing his thoughts on the subject, Sinha pointed out:
“80% seems about right. Mostly, because that’s the nature of evangelism. Most of us on social media seems to be crypto-evangelists. However, positive sentiments and bull markets are highly correlated and they seem to be feeding off each other to create a positive feedback loop. If I have to prophesize, the 80% positive sentiment will not be the case during a bear run. Then the voices of the skeptics will become louder and sentiments will turn increasingly negative.”

Tweet interpreters are being used to gauge global investor interest

A number of hedge funds and asset managers are currently turning tosoftware developers to help them interpret and harness sentiment signals to their advantage. Speaking to Reuters on the subject, Bin Ren — CEO of Elwood Asset Management — was quoted as saying that this latest trend of identifying price clues from tweets and other social media messages is slowly turning into an “arms race for money managers.”
To put things into perspective, it can be seen that the costs involved with conducting such types of research analyses are quite steep. As per Andrea Leccese, president of New York-based investment firm Bluesky Capital, a simple bot-driven Twitter data exploration can cost firms anywhere between $500,000-$1 million.

Will increasing regulations stifle the industry’s growth?

Ever since Facebook announced its decision to enter the digital asset market — via its much-hyped stablecoin offering called Libra, which is backed by the Libra Foundation — the regulatory noose surrounding this space seems to have tightened considerably. However, contrary to popular belief, a number of crypto analysts seem to believe that increased regulations can be a good thing for the industry.
Cointelegraph spoke to Mohanned Halawani, the founder and CEO of Crypto PR, one of the first blockchain-specialized communication firms. He seems to be quite optimistic and believes that some of the latest regulations are actually quite advantageous for prospective investors, especially those regarding security token offerings (STOs) and initial coin offerings (ICOs). Halawani went on to add:
“The SEC has facilitated the emergence of Security Token Offerings which it felt was a more worthy investment vehicle when compared to traditional Initial Coin Offerings… Security tokens allow their investors to get information about the issuer on a fully transparent framework, providing complete visibility on all token allocations. Thanks to the regulatory benefits of these assets, authorities are beginning to their raise their standards among tradable asset classes and even support their implementation.”
Similar opinions are also provided by Joe Mercurio, project manager for Comparitech, who believes that the goal behind these regulations is to ultimately make consumers and businesses more comfortable with using cryptocurrencies on a regular basis. Mercurio shared his thoughts with Cointelegraph:
“I think that government entities will eventually adopt blockchain technology and new cryptocurrencies will begin to emerge. That said, I do believe that the market will remain volatile.”
Whether we like it or not, government regulations are crucial for any financial commodity — be it crypto or otherwise — to gain mainstream acceptance. And while these rules and guidelines may appear to hamper an asset’s growth at times, a majority of these regulations are a step in the right direction. Also, because Bitcoin and other digital currencies are basically tools for individual financial freedom, governments do not want to give up financial control over their citizens.
Simply put, when we see the history of such revolutionary technologies getting adopted by countries en masse’, we are sadly faced with a long and painful path that eventually leads to widespread human well-being.

How much of a role does social media play in shaping the public’s opinion on crypto?

Mercurio, whose core field of work includes the analysis of tweets and other online content to gauge public sentiment, is of the belief that there currently exists a strong correlation between the volume of social media posts related to a particular digital asset and its price. As part of his research, he claims to have often observed spikes in online articles when the price of a specific cryptocurrency changes. Mercurio went on to add:
“Social media posts remain more positive during times of price fluctuation compared to media coverage overall. Online enthusiasm regarding crypto has been overwhelmingly warm. We found that cryptocurrency-related subreddits were 55% more likely than media publications to have content with positive sentiment toward various cryptocurrencies.”
In a similar vein, to look at the impact that social media influencers have on the crypto industry, we can turn to a few high-profile individuals such as Elon Musk and LA Chargers’ star Russell Okung, both of whom have been advocating for the widespread adoption of crypto for quite some time now. In fact, Okung has sent out several requests to the NFL, asking the league (since the start of 2019) to provide its employees with the option of getting paid in crypto — a petition that is backed by fellow NFL star Matt Barkley.

Looking ahead

It thus appears as though the crypto market will continue to grow, mainly because people want to find newer economic avenues that are free from the involvement of any corporations or government-controlled agencies. However, a lot of this growth will depend on the use cases that emerge from this space. Also, as social media continues to play an ever-increasing role in arenas such as politics and public affairs, there is no reason to doubt its utility when it comes to crypto adoption.
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Big Events And General Trend Of The Crypto Market In the 2nd Half Of 2019

Big Events And General Trend Of The Crypto Market In the 2nd Half Of 2019


On November 15, 2018, the BCH hard fork led to the “earthquake” of the crypto market, and the price started a bluff slump, nowhere has this seen to be more evident than in the change of BTC price, falling from $6,500 to $3,155 in just a month.
However, after entering 2019, Bitcoin rallied through 4,000 US dollars, 6,000 US dollars and 8,000 US dollars in three months, and it has broken through $10,000, continuously hitting the new highs within the year. On the morning of June 22, BTC successfully rose above $10,000 for the first time in 18 months. As of June 26, BTC increased more than 246% during the year. (Source: 58COIN Exchange)

(BTC Chart, 2019)
Compared with gold, crude oil, stocks, and other mainstream assets, the growth rate of Bitcoin has more than doubled this year. The return rate of Bitcoin is close to 10 times that of the stock market this year, a complete victory over other markets.
Bitcoin Surges Past $13,000, Hitting A 18-Month High
Why has BTC surged sharply in the past three months? There is a variety of opinions regarding the matter.
1) Some analysts believe that the launch of Libra by the social media giant Facebook is pushing the winning streak of Bitcoin price. Besides, the launch plan of the physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts by Bakkt serves as another big part of the price surge.
2) According to the experience, every time the bitcoin is halved, the digital market will welcome a bull market.
3) Some believe that hyperinflation is a catalyst for the development of bitcoin.
4) It is said that the most important reason for this round of rising is the continuous involvements of various types of investment financial institutions, such as Fidelity, it has stepped into the BTC mining, etc.
5) Data shows that more new investors are attracted by the digital currency. Since there is a continuous USDT premium, the willingness of the out-floor to enter the market is strong.
6) From the technical perspective, Bitcoin has maintained a bullish parabolic trend, and it is expected to continue to rise once it breaks through the previous high.
7) Some even hold the grounds that the Sino-US trade war has led to the depreciation of the renminbi, and a large number of funds to choose bitcoin for hedging, becoming one of the reasons that result in the surge in BTC prices.
8) Of course, the abovementioned opinions are some of the reasons for the skyrocketing of bitcoin. Undoubtedly, the bull market of BTC has indeed arrived! Research into the root cause is meaningless, as people will always find reasons for price rise, and the rise does not need a reason.
Entering The Bull Market, Five Hotspots To Follow
1. Bakkt is to be Launched
Bakkt's highly regarded bitcoin futures plan was initially launched in November 2018 and has been pushed back several times due to delays in obtaining regulatory approval from the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). Recently, it was reported that Bakkt plans to launch physically-settled of bitcoin futures contracts in July.
Bakkt's on-line has been widely interpreted by various parties as the fuse for the arrival of the bull market. The main reasons are: 1) Providing a compliant and reliable access channel for the “regular investment army”; 2) Physical delivery regulates the market order and hangs a “Sword of Damocles” on the shorts. Bakkt was the best and even the only admission channel for the mainstream investors before the bitcoin ETFs passed. On Tuesday, June 25, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved bitcoin derivatives provider LedgerX to provide physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts. It is expected that Bakkt will be launched soon.
2. Bitcoin ETFs will be Approved
Investors are not strangers to the Bitcoin ETF, it is one that mimics the price of the most popular digital currency in the world. This allows investors to buy into the ETF without going through the complicated process of trading bitcoin itself. As of now, there have been dozens of ETF proposals, but they were all been rejected by the SEC. Investors often compare bitcoin ETFs to gold ETFs and the price of the latter has skyrocketed since the first launch. Therefore, after the approval of bitcoin ETFs, a large influx of institutional investors will enter with a large number of investment funds, which will certainly serve as the driving force of the rise of bitcoin price.


3. The Popular Influx of Large Companies
In addition to Bakkt and ETF, there are many other projects that can help institutional funds flood into the cryptocurrency market. This is one of the most important advances in terms of market confidence and price impact.
Various ETF-like products have been very active. BinckBank offers Bitcoin ETN (Bitcoin Exchange Trading Voucher), and the SIX Swiss Exchange in Switzerland is approved for listing cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) that allow investors to hold a package of various digital currency combinations...
In the next few years, the largest global financial companies are also expected to launch a variety of encryption platforms. For example, Fidelity, one of the world's largest asset management companies, the Stuttgart Stock Exchange, the second largest exchange in Germany, and the Nasdaq in the United States, will provide bitcoin futures services.
4. Quality Projects and Technical Breakthroughs Accelerate Market Rally
For investors, it is the most unwilling to go through a bear market. But in turn, the bear market is also a sieve that cleans up all the fraud and junk items in the cryptocurrency market, which is crucial for the industry. According to incomplete statistics, in 2018, more than 1,000 cryptocurrency projects were phased out, and countless digital currency exchanges were eliminated.
Exchanges that completed the competition for survival of the fittest have been working hard to develop the products they promised over the past year. Therefore, quality projects and technical breakthroughs will surely have a positive impact on the long-term market.
5. Increased Supervision and Compliance
The rapid emergence and development of cryptocurrencies have led the government to lag far behind in terms of regulation. Since there are huge risks in the daily transactions of investors, some governments have banned such transactions. Good supervision on the digital market is urgently needed to make the market more reliable and stable, so as to realize the real potential of the blockchain. Therefore, “supervision” is still one of the keywords in the second half of 2019.
The beginning of the bull market has brought more hope and confidence in the market. Bitcoin has been well received by investors regardless of spot or futures. For the bitcoin price in the second half of the year, a digital currency analyst suggested that there are technical indicators show that bitcoin may rise to $60,000. Zhao Changpeng, CEO of the Binance, said: "There is no upper limit on the price of bitcoin."
The bull market has started, however, compared with the past, this round of bull market boasts two main features: 1) A lot of institutional investors have indeed participated in this bull market, which indicates that bitcoin is gradually accepted by the mainstream financial investors; 2) The correlation between the bitcoin and other financial market core factors such as the conversion rate has become stronger and is gradually more affected by the international financial situation. As the volume of the bitcoin market becomes larger, it is becoming more standard and international.
In a word, the bull market is coming, haven’t you got involved in bitcoin investment? 58COIN exchange is the right choice for you, it has launched the USDT contract and delivery contract based on the innovation of perpetual contract. Besides, with the rally of the cryptocurrency price, its cloud mining products have been well received by the market. Whether you are an adventurous or a conservative investor, you can always find a tailored product for you at 58COIN exchange.
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[Manipulation] Notes on the transparency of Tether and Bitcoin market manipulation

I would like to share some alarming signs of Bitcoin price manipulation.
Bitcoin price is about 10 times of what it was a year ago. The exchange that decisively sets Bitcoin price is Bitfinex, a secretive institution with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organization.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs0oGXQWAAAqMRZ.jpg
Bitfinex had its wire services suspended by Wells Fargo in April. To resume trading, Bitfinex enlisted the help of Tether, another company with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organisation, but based on announcements is likely under common share holder control with Bitfinex. Tether sells crypto-tokens known as USD Tethers, or USDTs, that are purportedly backed by an equal number of US dollars. In other words, each USDT is a digital good priced at USD 1.00.
Despite the promise of "100% reserve" and the vague reference to "24×7 access to your funds" on Tether’s website, there is no contractual right, either tacit or express, for one USDT to be redeemed for one US dollar. It is probably through this legal construct that Tether hopes to characterise its USDTs as digital goods and not "convertible" virtual currency covered by FinCEN regulations.
The invention of USDTs led to the proliferation of numerous crypto-currency exchanges. Examples include Bitfinex, Binance, HitBTC, KKex, Poloniex, and YoBit. Instead of providing crypto-to-fiat trading pairs, these "coin-to-coin" exchanges offer crypto-to-tether trading exclusively. Therefore, USDTs not only help these exchanges remove the need for formal banking arrangement, but also enables these exchanges to organise in lesser known jurisdictions (e.g., the Republic of Seychelles) and operate outside of the regulation and supervision of major economies. Most of these exchanges claim to screen-off visitors from the United States and other countries with laws on coin-to-coin trading, but the screen-off is often perfunctory. In almost all cases, the screen can be defeated with a simple mouse click.
It is doubtful that these exchanges perform meaningful due diligence beyond identity verification to combat money laundering, financing of terrorism, and corruption of politically exposes persons. Bitfinex, for example, requires no identity verification at all for most trading activities and imposes no trading amount limits on unverified accounts. The enablement of these exchanges where rampant money laundering is possible is outside of the scope of this note. Instead, I would like to bring to your attention the distinct possibility that Bitfinex, as the likely controller of Tether, is a bad actor.
Strong circumstantial evidence suggests that Bitfinex is creating USDTs out of thin air to prop up Bitcoin prices. Namely, Bitfinex is likely acting as a central bank that issues a fiat money called USDTs. The sole mandate of this central bank is to enrich itself through market manipulation.
https://i.imgur.com/b1Pdsq9.jpg
The first image (above) illustrates how mysterious amounts of USDTs were minted and injected into Bitfinex at precise moments when a crash seemed imminent.
https://i.imgur.com/jAyPlF8.jpg
The second image (above) illustrates a strong correlation (but admittedly not causation) between the total amount of USDTs in circulation and Bitcoin price.
Bitfinex released an internal memo in September to allay concerns that USDTs might have been created at will. The memo purportedly shows that Tether maintained sufficient US dollars to match all USDTs in circulation as of a day in September. The memo, however, is of no probative value. Among other strange things, the author of the memo didn’t verify with banks (names redacted) that account balances from Tethers were in fact correct, couldn’t promise that the balances weren’t overnight borrowings for purposes of producing the memo, and couldn’t promise that Tether indeed had access to those funds.
I therefore urge you to consider the possibility that the current price of Bitcoin is the result of Bitfinex’s manipulation and may collapse when regulators take action.
For example, Tether is almost certainly an administrator of virtual currency — it centrally puts into and withdraws from circulation USDTs, a virtual currency squarely intended as a substitute for real currency as admitted by Tether in the internal memo.
Tether has nominally registered as a money transmitter with FinCEN, but it is unclear if they fulfill any of the BSA filing requirements (e.g., filing SARs).2 As a company, Tether’s USDTs enables large crypto-currency exchanges (including US-based exchanges like Poloniex) to exist and powers trades thereon in the amount of millions every day. So it wouldn’t be surprising if FinCEN eventually decides to enforce its rules against Tether as it did against Liberty Reserve.
Further, CFTC approved recently various swap execution facilities, designated contract markets and derivative clearing organizations with Bitcoin flavor. And the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is expected to launch cash-settled futures on Bitcoin soon. Manipulation of Bitcoin prices referenced by these entities is prosecutable by the CFTC, an agency with broad statutory authority to prosecute manipulation of commodity prices under the Commodity Exchange Act (including Section 753 as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act.).
Although none of these CFTC-registered entities are currently including Bitfinex in the calculation of their Bitcoin reference rates (CME used to), it is well understood and could be easily established (partially because of the transparency of Bitcoin blockchain) that Bitfinex-initiated price movements ripple through all exchanges via manual and automated trading.3 CFTC could then have grounds to investigate Bitfinex’s possible manipulation of Bitcoin price via Tether.
If you are considering investing into Bitcoin at this time, please look closer at the exchanges involved in price discovery and give it a second thought.
submitted by Yanlii to btc [link] [comments]

[Manipulation] Notes on the transparency of Tether and Bitcoin market manipulation

I would like to share some alarming signs of Bitcoin price manipulation.
Bitcoin price is about 10 times of what it was a year ago. The exchange that decisively sets Bitcoin price is Bitfinex, a secretive institution with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organization.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs0oGXQWAAAqMRZ.jpg
Bitfinex had its wire services suspended by Wells Fargo in April. To resume trading, Bitfinex enlisted the help of Tether, another company with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organisation, but based on announcements is likely under common share holder control with Bitfinex. Tether sells crypto-tokens known as USD Tethers, or USDTs, that are purportedly backed by an equal number of US dollars. In other words, each USDT is a digital good priced at USD 1.00.
Despite the promise of "100% reserve" and the vague reference to "24×7 access to your funds" on Tether’s website, there is no contractual right, either tacit or express, for one USDT to be redeemed for one US dollar. It is probably through this legal construct that Tether hopes to characterise its USDTs as digital goods and not "convertible" virtual currency covered by FinCEN regulations.
The invention of USDTs led to the proliferation of numerous crypto-currency exchanges. Examples include Bitfinex, Binance, HitBTC, KKex, Poloniex, and YoBit. Instead of providing crypto-to-fiat trading pairs, these "coin-to-coin" exchanges offer crypto-to-tether trading exclusively. Therefore, USDTs not only help these exchanges remove the need for formal banking arrangement, but also enables these exchanges to organise in lesser known jurisdictions (e.g., the Republic of Seychelles) and operate outside of the regulation and supervision of major economies. Most of these exchanges claim to screen-off visitors from the United States and other countries with laws on coin-to-coin trading, but the screen-off is often perfunctory. In almost all cases, the screen can be defeated with a simple mouse click.
It is doubtful that these exchanges perform meaningful due diligence beyond identity verification to combat money laundering, financing of terrorism, and corruption of politically exposes persons. Bitfinex, for example, requires no identity verification at all for most trading activities and imposes no trading amount limits on unverified accounts. The enablement of these exchanges where rampant money laundering is possible is outside of the scope of this note. Instead, I would like to bring to your attention the distinct possibility that Bitfinex, as the likely controller of Tether, is a bad actor.
Strong circumstantial evidence suggests that Bitfinex is creating USDTs out of thin air to prop up Bitcoin prices. Namely, Bitfinex is likely acting as a central bank that issues a fiat money called USDTs. The sole mandate of this central bank is to enrich itself through market manipulation.
https://i.imgur.com/b1Pdsq9.jpg
The first image (above) illustrates how mysterious amounts of USDTs were minted and injected into Bitfinex at precise moments when a crash seemed imminent.
https://i.imgur.com/jAyPlF8.jpg
The second image (above) illustrates a strong correlation (but admittedly not causation) between the total amount of USDTs in circulation and Bitcoin price.
Bitfinex released an internal memo in September to allay concerns that USDTs might have been created at will. The memo purportedly shows that Tether maintained sufficient US dollars to match all USDTs in circulation as of a day in September. The memo, however, is of no probative value. Among other strange things, the author of the memo didn’t verify with banks (names redacted) that account balances from Tethers were in fact correct, couldn’t promise that the balances weren’t overnight borrowings for purposes of producing the memo, and couldn’t promise that Tether indeed had access to those funds.
I therefore urge you to consider the possibility that the current price of Bitcoin is the result of Bitfinex’s manipulation and may collapse when regulators take action.
For example, Tether is almost certainly an administrator of virtual currency — it centrally puts into and withdraws from circulation USDTs, a virtual currency squarely intended as a substitute for real currency as admitted by Tether in the internal memo.
Tether has nominally registered as a money transmitter with FinCEN, but it is unclear if they fulfill any of the BSA filing requirements (e.g., filing SARs).2 As a company, Tether’s USDTs enables large crypto-currency exchanges (including US-based exchanges like Poloniex) to exist and powers trades thereon in the amount of millions every day. So it wouldn’t be surprising if FinCEN eventually decides to enforce its rules against Tether as it did against Liberty Reserve.
Further, CFTC approved recently various swap execution facilities, designated contract markets and derivative clearing organizations with Bitcoin flavor. And the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is expected to launch cash-settled futures on Bitcoin soon. Manipulation of Bitcoin prices referenced by these entities is prosecutable by the CFTC, an agency with broad statutory authority to prosecute manipulation of commodity prices under the Commodity Exchange Act (including Section 753 as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act.).
Although none of these CFTC-registered entities are currently including Bitfinex in the calculation of their Bitcoin reference rates (CME used to), it is well understood and could be easily established (partially because of the transparency of Bitcoin blockchain) that Bitfinex-initiated price movements ripple through all exchanges via manual and automated trading.3 CFTC could then have grounds to investigate Bitfinex’s possible manipulation of Bitcoin price via Tether.
If you are considering investing into Bitcoin at this time, please look closer at the exchanges involved in price discovery and give it a second thought.
submitted by Yanlii to Tether [link] [comments]

[Manipulation] Notes on the transparency of Tether and Bitcoin market manipulation

I would like to share some alarming signs of Bitcoin price manipulation.
Bitcoin price is about 10 times of what it was a year ago. The exchange that decisively sets Bitcoin price is Bitfinex, a secretive institution with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organization.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs0oGXQWAAAqMRZ.jpg
Bitfinex had its wire services suspended by Wells Fargo in April. To resume trading, Bitfinex enlisted the help of Tether, another company with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organisation, but based on announcements is likely under common share holder control with Bitfinex. Tether sells crypto-tokens known as USD Tethers, or USDTs, that are purportedly backed by an equal number of US dollars. In other words, each USDT is a digital good priced at USD 1.00.
Despite the promise of "100% reserve" and the vague reference to "24×7 access to your funds" on Tether’s website, there is no contractual right, either tacit or express, for one USDT to be redeemed for one US dollar. It is probably through this legal construct that Tether hopes to characterise its USDTs as digital goods and not "convertible" virtual currency covered by FinCEN regulations.
The invention of USDTs led to the proliferation of numerous crypto-currency exchanges. Examples include Bitfinex, Binance, HitBTC, KKex, Poloniex, and YoBit. Instead of providing crypto-to-fiat trading pairs, these "coin-to-coin" exchanges offer crypto-to-tether trading exclusively. Therefore, USDTs not only help these exchanges remove the need for formal banking arrangement, but also enables these exchanges to organise in lesser known jurisdictions (e.g., the Republic of Seychelles) and operate outside of the regulation and supervision of major economies. Most of these exchanges claim to screen-off visitors from the United States and other countries with laws on coin-to-coin trading, but the screen-off is often perfunctory. In almost all cases, the screen can be defeated with a simple mouse click.
It is doubtful that these exchanges perform meaningful due diligence beyond identity verification to combat money laundering, financing of terrorism, and corruption of politically exposes persons. Bitfinex, for example, requires no identity verification at all for most trading activities and imposes no trading amount limits on unverified accounts. The enablement of these exchanges where rampant money laundering is possible is outside of the scope of this note. Instead, I would like to bring to your attention the distinct possibility that Bitfinex, as the likely controller of Tether, is a bad actor.
Strong circumstantial evidence suggests that Bitfinex is creating USDTs out of thin air to prop up Bitcoin prices. Namely, Bitfinex is likely acting as a central bank that issues a fiat money called USDTs. The sole mandate of this central bank is to enrich itself through market manipulation.
https://i.imgur.com/b1Pdsq9.jpg
The first image (above) illustrates how mysterious amounts of USDTs were minted and injected into Bitfinex at precise moments when a crash seemed imminent.
https://i.imgur.com/jAyPlF8.jpg
The second image (above) illustrates a strong correlation (but admittedly not causation) between the total amount of USDTs in circulation and Bitcoin price.
Bitfinex released an internal memo in September to allay concerns that USDTs might have been created at will. The memo purportedly shows that Tether maintained sufficient US dollars to match all USDTs in circulation as of a day in September. The memo, however, is of no probative value. Among other strange things, the author of the memo didn’t verify with banks (names redacted) that account balances from Tethers were in fact correct, couldn’t promise that the balances weren’t overnight borrowings for purposes of producing the memo, and couldn’t promise that Tether indeed had access to those funds.
I therefore urge you to consider the possibility that the current price of Bitcoin is the result of Bitfinex’s manipulation and may collapse when regulators take action.
For example, Tether is almost certainly an administrator of virtual currency — it centrally puts into and withdraws from circulation USDTs, a virtual currency squarely intended as a substitute for real currency as admitted by Tether in the internal memo.
Tether has nominally registered as a money transmitter with FinCEN, but it is unclear if they fulfill any of the BSA filing requirements (e.g., filing SARs).2 As a company, Tether’s USDTs enables large crypto-currency exchanges (including US-based exchanges like Poloniex) to exist and powers trades thereon in the amount of millions every day. So it wouldn’t be surprising if FinCEN eventually decides to enforce its rules against Tether as it did against Liberty Reserve.
Further, CFTC approved recently various swap execution facilities, designated contract markets and derivative clearing organizations with Bitcoin flavor. And the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is expected to launch cash-settled futures on Bitcoin soon. Manipulation of Bitcoin prices referenced by these entities is prosecutable by the CFTC, an agency with broad statutory authority to prosecute manipulation of commodity prices under the Commodity Exchange Act (including Section 753 as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act.).
Although none of these CFTC-registered entities are currently including Bitfinex in the calculation of their Bitcoin reference rates (CME used to), it is well understood and could be easily established (partially because of the transparency of Bitcoin blockchain) that Bitfinex-initiated price movements ripple through all exchanges via manual and automated trading.3 CFTC could then have grounds to investigate Bitfinex’s possible manipulation of Bitcoin price via Tether.
If you are considering investing into Bitcoin at this time, please look closer at the exchanges involved in price discovery and give it a second thought.
submitted by Yanlii to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

[Manipulation] Notes on the transparency of Tether and Bitcoin market manipulation

I would like to share some alarming signs of Bitcoin price manipulation.
Bitcoin price is about 10 times of what it was a year ago. The exchange that decisively sets Bitcoin price is Bitfinex, a secretive institution with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organization.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs0oGXQWAAAqMRZ.jpg
Bitfinex had its wire services suspended by Wells Fargo in April. To resume trading, Bitfinex enlisted the help of Tether, another company with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organisation, but based on announcements is likely under common share holder control with Bitfinex. Tether sells crypto-tokens known as USD Tethers, or USDTs, that are purportedly backed by an equal number of US dollars. In other words, each USDT is a digital good priced at USD 1.00.
Despite the promise of "100% reserve" and the vague reference to "24×7 access to your funds" on Tether’s website, there is no contractual right, either tacit or express, for one USDT to be redeemed for one US dollar. It is probably through this legal construct that Tether hopes to characterise its USDTs as digital goods and not "convertible" virtual currency covered by FinCEN regulations.
The invention of USDTs led to the proliferation of numerous crypto-currency exchanges. Examples include Bitfinex, Binance, HitBTC, KKex, Poloniex, and YoBit. Instead of providing crypto-to-fiat trading pairs, these "coin-to-coin" exchanges offer crypto-to-tether trading exclusively. Therefore, USDTs not only help these exchanges remove the need for formal banking arrangement, but also enables these exchanges to organise in lesser known jurisdictions (e.g., the Republic of Seychelles) and operate outside of the regulation and supervision of major economies. Most of these exchanges claim to screen-off visitors from the United States and other countries with laws on coin-to-coin trading, but the screen-off is often perfunctory. In almost all cases, the screen can be defeated with a simple mouse click.
It is doubtful that these exchanges perform meaningful due diligence beyond identity verification to combat money laundering, financing of terrorism, and corruption of politically exposes persons. Bitfinex, for example, requires no identity verification at all for most trading activities and imposes no trading amount limits on unverified accounts. The enablement of these exchanges where rampant money laundering is possible is outside of the scope of this note. Instead, I would like to bring to your attention the distinct possibility that Bitfinex, as the likely controller of Tether, is a bad actor.
Strong circumstantial evidence suggests that Bitfinex is creating USDTs out of thin air to prop up Bitcoin prices. Namely, Bitfinex is likely acting as a central bank that issues a fiat money called USDTs. The sole mandate of this central bank is to enrich itself through market manipulation.
https://i.imgur.com/b1Pdsq9.jpg
The first image (above) illustrates how mysterious amounts of USDTs were minted and injected into Bitfinex at precise moments when a crash seemed imminent.
https://i.imgur.com/jAyPlF8.jpg
The second image (above) illustrates a strong correlation (but admittedly not causation) between the total amount of USDTs in circulation and Bitcoin price.
Bitfinex released an internal memo in September to allay concerns that USDTs might have been created at will. The memo purportedly shows that Tether maintained sufficient US dollars to match all USDTs in circulation as of a day in September. The memo, however, is of no probative value. Among other strange things, the author of the memo didn’t verify with banks (names redacted) that account balances from Tethers were in fact correct, couldn’t promise that the balances weren’t overnight borrowings for purposes of producing the memo, and couldn’t promise that Tether indeed had access to those funds.
I therefore urge you to consider the possibility that the current price of Bitcoin is the result of Bitfinex’s manipulation and may collapse when regulators take action.
For example, Tether is almost certainly an administrator of virtual currency — it centrally puts into and withdraws from circulation USDTs, a virtual currency squarely intended as a substitute for real currency as admitted by Tether in the internal memo.
Tether has nominally registered as a money transmitter with FinCEN, but it is unclear if they fulfill any of the BSA filing requirements (e.g., filing SARs).2 As a company, Tether’s USDTs enables large crypto-currency exchanges (including US-based exchanges like Poloniex) to exist and powers trades thereon in the amount of millions every day. So it wouldn’t be surprising if FinCEN eventually decides to enforce its rules against Tether as it did against Liberty Reserve.
Further, CFTC approved recently various swap execution facilities, designated contract markets and derivative clearing organizations with Bitcoin flavor. And the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is expected to launch cash-settled futures on Bitcoin soon. Manipulation of Bitcoin prices referenced by these entities is prosecutable by the CFTC, an agency with broad statutory authority to prosecute manipulation of commodity prices under the Commodity Exchange Act (including Section 753 as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act.).
Although none of these CFTC-registered entities are currently including Bitfinex in the calculation of their Bitcoin reference rates (CME used to), it is well understood and could be easily established (partially because of the transparency of Bitcoin blockchain) that Bitfinex-initiated price movements ripple through all exchanges via manual and automated trading.3 CFTC could then have grounds to investigate Bitfinex’s possible manipulation of Bitcoin price via Tether.
If you are considering investing into Bitcoin at this time, please look closer at the exchanges involved in price discovery and give it a second thought.
submitted by Yanlii to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

[Manipulation] Notes on the transparency of Tether and Bitcoin market manipulation

I would like to share some alarming signs of Bitcoin price manipulation.
Bitcoin price is about 10 times of what it was a year ago. The exchange that decisively sets Bitcoin price is Bitfinex, a secretive institution with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organization.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cs0oGXQWAAAqMRZ.jpg
Bitfinex had its wire services suspended by Wells Fargo in April. To resume trading, Bitfinex enlisted the help of Tether, another company with unknown beneficiary structure and place of organisation, but based on announcements is likely under common share holder control with Bitfinex. Tether sells crypto-tokens known as USD Tethers, or USDTs, that are purportedly backed by an equal number of US dollars. In other words, each USDT is a digital good priced at USD 1.00.
Despite the promise of "100% reserve" and the vague reference to "24×7 access to your funds" on Tether’s website, there is no contractual right, either tacit or express, for one USDT to be redeemed for one US dollar. It is probably through this legal construct that Tether hopes to characterise its USDTs as digital goods and not "convertible" virtual currency covered by FinCEN regulations.
The invention of USDTs led to the proliferation of numerous crypto-currency exchanges. Examples include Bitfinex, Binance, HitBTC, KKex, Poloniex, and YoBit. Instead of providing crypto-to-fiat trading pairs, these "coin-to-coin" exchanges offer crypto-to-tether trading exclusively. Therefore, USDTs not only help these exchanges remove the need for formal banking arrangement, but also enables these exchanges to organise in lesser known jurisdictions (e.g., the Republic of Seychelles) and operate outside of the regulation and supervision of major economies. Most of these exchanges claim to screen-off visitors from the United States and other countries with laws on coin-to-coin trading, but the screen-off is often perfunctory. In almost all cases, the screen can be defeated with a simple mouse click.
It is doubtful that these exchanges perform meaningful due diligence beyond identity verification to combat money laundering, financing of terrorism, and corruption of politically exposes persons. Bitfinex, for example, requires no identity verification at all for most trading activities and imposes no trading amount limits on unverified accounts. The enablement of these exchanges where rampant money laundering is possible is outside of the scope of this note. Instead, I would like to bring to your attention the distinct possibility that Bitfinex, as the likely controller of Tether, is a bad actor.
Strong circumstantial evidence suggests that Bitfinex is creating USDTs out of thin air to prop up Bitcoin prices. Namely, Bitfinex is likely acting as a central bank that issues a fiat money called USDTs. The sole mandate of this central bank is to enrich itself through market manipulation.
https://i.imgur.com/b1Pdsq9.jpg
The first image (above) illustrates how mysterious amounts of USDTs were minted and injected into Bitfinex at precise moments when a crash seemed imminent.
https://i.imgur.com/jAyPlF8.jpg
The second image (above) illustrates a strong correlation (but admittedly not causation) between the total amount of USDTs in circulation and Bitcoin price.
Bitfinex released an internal memo in September to allay concerns that USDTs might have been created at will. The memo purportedly shows that Tether maintained sufficient US dollars to match all USDTs in circulation as of a day in September. The memo, however, is of no probative value. Among other strange things, the author of the memo didn’t verify with banks (names redacted) that account balances from Tethers were in fact correct, couldn’t promise that the balances weren’t overnight borrowings for purposes of producing the memo, and couldn’t promise that Tether indeed had access to those funds.
I therefore urge you to consider the possibility that the current price of Bitcoin is the result of Bitfinex’s manipulation and may collapse when regulators take action.
For example, Tether is almost certainly an administrator of virtual currency — it centrally puts into and withdraws from circulation USDTs, a virtual currency squarely intended as a substitute for real currency as admitted by Tether in the internal memo.
Tether has nominally registered as a money transmitter with FinCEN, but it is unclear if they fulfill any of the BSA filing requirements (e.g., filing SARs).2 As a company, Tether’s USDTs enables large crypto-currency exchanges (including US-based exchanges like Poloniex) to exist and powers trades thereon in the amount of millions every day. So it wouldn’t be surprising if FinCEN eventually decides to enforce its rules against Tether as it did against Liberty Reserve.
Further, CFTC approved recently various swap execution facilities, designated contract markets and derivative clearing organizations with Bitcoin flavor. And the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is expected to launch cash-settled futures on Bitcoin soon. Manipulation of Bitcoin prices referenced by these entities is prosecutable by the CFTC, an agency with broad statutory authority to prosecute manipulation of commodity prices under the Commodity Exchange Act (including Section 753 as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act.).
Although none of these CFTC-registered entities are currently including Bitfinex in the calculation of their Bitcoin reference rates (CME used to), it is well understood and could be easily established (partially because of the transparency of Bitcoin blockchain) that Bitfinex-initiated price movements ripple through all exchanges via manual and automated trading.3 CFTC could then have grounds to investigate Bitfinex’s possible manipulation of Bitcoin price via Tether.
If you are considering investing into Bitcoin at this time, please look closer at the exchanges involved in price discovery and give it a second thought.
submitted by Yanlii to bitfinex [link] [comments]

Since 2016, crypto-exchanges in South Korea have been hacked 7 times, with hackers stealing $99 million. Learn more and discover other news of the crypto market in the analytical report of the Golden Island private club.

Since 2016, crypto-exchanges in South Korea have been hacked 7 times, with hackers stealing $99 million. Learn more and discover other news of the crypto market in the analytical report of the Golden Island private club.
We present to you a report filed by our analysts for October 8–14.
The main market events on October 8–14, 2018
  1. IBM food trust blockchain platform has been launched. Tech giant IBM announced the start of a commercial use of the IBM Food Trust blockchain platform based on the Hyperledger Fabric protocol. The platform will monitor the supply chains in the food industry. The European retail giant Carrefour, which operates 12,000 stores in 33 countries, has already joined the network.
    1. The blockchain research lab at the China Electronics Standardization Institute is developing three blockchain standards for smart contracts, privacy and deposits that could be used in international practice.
    2. Bitfinex denied rumors of insolvency and published links to cold wallets, which hold nearly $1 billion in bitcoins, $400 million on the ether and $200 million in EOS.
    3. Binance will now spend all listing fees on charity. The amount of donations is up to the project.
    4. Since 2016, crypto-exchanges in South Korea have been hacked 7 times, with hackers stealing $99 million. From 2015 to 2018, personal crypto wallets were hacked 158 times, but only in six cases hackers were caught, according to South Korean police.
    5. For the first time, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority issued a license for managing crypto assets, which effectively grants the company the status of a traditional bank. The license was issued to Crypto Finance Group.
    6. By the end of this year, the European Securities and Markets Authority will prepare a report stating its position on the regulation of token sales. At the same time, the ICO activity dropped by 90%, according to Autonomous Research report. This September, token sales raised $300 million, and this January — $2.4 billion.
    7. In the next 5 years, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, together with IBM, will introduce the blockchain into the wired payment system of the country and create a digital identification system.
    8. Roger Ver said he was looking for a partner to launch his own crypto-exchange. He may also purchase a ready-made platform. Bitcoin Cash will be the main currency on the new exchange.
    9. Google believes that the main critics of Bitcoin — Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon and Roger Ver — are the CEOs of Bitcoin. If you google “bitcoin ceo”, a search engine will show Bitcoin’s so-called CEOs — head of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon, head of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffet and one of the main evangelists of Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin.Com CEO Roger Vera.
    10. The People’s Bank of China believes that the stablecoins tied to the US dollar have a bad effect on the currencies of other countries. The bank urges to issue stablecoins tied to the yuan :-D
    11. MasterCard files a patent for a blockchain system designed to store different currencies on the same platform by generating blocks for an exclusive network. This network stores different types of data in different blocks.
    12. The US government imposed additional sanctions on Venezuela because of its national cryptocurrency. The developers of El Petro consider this free advertising.
    13. Coinbase aims to enter the Japanese market next year. The company is already negotiating the license matters with the Japan Financial Services Agency.
    14. In November, South Korea might lift the ban on ICO. This will be discussed at a meeting of the country’s regulators, where they will review the results of the September ICO study and pass a decision.
    15. The first ever phone call through the blockchain was made from the Pundi X startup device called XPhone. The phone runs on Android and allows the user to exchange calls, messages and files.
    16. The Singapore-based BK Global Consortium, which provides services in the field of surgery, bought 38% of the Bithumb stock exchange for 400 billion won ($350 million), making it the largest shareholder of the stock exchange.
    17. Starting from 2019, the UAE companies will be able to officially launch ICO to raise capital. The Securities and Commodity Board will now treat crowdsales as the issue of securities.
    18. The international payment systems (MPS) will take more stringent measures against cryptocurrencies: MasterCard will ban them starting on Monday, Visa — in December.
    19. The new Minister of Science and Technology of Japan promotes active introduction of blockchain technologies.
    20. As part of the emCash cryptocurrency launch campaign in Dubai, the payment startup Pundi X has made an agreement with emCredit — the credit department of the Dubai Ministry of Economic Development. This was shared in the company’s blog.
    21. Market analytics from experts of the club for October 8–14, 2018
The last week was controversial. On the one hand, everything went according to plan: the price of BTC was growing very slowly, the altcoins skyrocketed, on the other hand, it was clear to everybody this could not last for a long time.
In the middle of the week, the expectations became reality — BTC lost about $300 in price within an hour. This time, the total cap failed to observe the periodicity — it dropped by $17 billion on Thursday and remained at this level until the end of the week. Thus, $219 billion on Monday turned into $202 billion by the end of the week.
Trading volumes were not particularly surprising: $12 billion on Monday, $16 billion on Thursday and $9 billion on Sunday. BTC dominated the market at 52–53% and up to 57% in the days of decline, followed by a reversal. The price for 1 BTC, as already mentioned, fell from $6,600 to $6,270 in the middle of the week, and recovered a bit to $6,330 at the end of the week ($6332 at the time of the report). There were no critical news, no far-fetched correlations with stock markets, and no fundamental reasons for such a decline. Most traders were happy with the current situation — the “pumps” of coins occurred every day. Top 10 coins showed complete correlation with the BTC price. In addition, intra-team and intra-project relations in the crypto-societies have strained, which was followed by a number of break-ups and heated public debates. There is a high chance that tycoons and market makers are trying to impose a thought that cryptocurrencies have no future. The advice is simple — to keep and purchase more strong coins, get rid of the weak ones and keep calm.
The big gains are right round the corner!
  1. Changes in the cost and capitalization of the TOP-10 cryptocurrencies in the period of October 8–14, 2018

https://preview.redd.it/vecdswg6dis11.jpg?width=770&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ff304259f876ff22063d42597e7ac643f23d7d6
  1. TOP-3 growing coins from the long-term portfolio for October 8–14, 2018 (including portfolio updates) The fastest-growing coins during the last week are WaBi coins + 42% (a number of articles and ensuing pumps), IOTEX IOTX + 35% (partnerships), QuarkChain QRC + 20% (meetups and events in social networks)
Want to be the first to receive the latest news, insights of analysts and trading signals? Join @gitsupport channel and start earning with us!
submitted by Golden_Island_Club to u/Golden_Island_Club [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Quater's Drop By 10%. Binance And CoinMarketCap In Focus Binance Adds New Bitcoin Futures as Crypto Market Volume Turns Bearish The Decoupling: Bitcoin and Altcoins Correlation Vanishing? How to sell BTC to INR ( Best Bitcoin exchange of 2019 ) p4ay BINANCE ALLOWS PURCHASING OF 5 CRYPTOCURRENCIES WITH CREDIT CARDS Bitcoin Price Reversal, Bitcoin Legal Tender, Bitcoin Gold Manipulation &

On BNBBTC a big rising wedge is being built --> Target 0.0053785 with ~14% gains. On BNBUSD old support should become resistance --> Target 31.82$ with 27-28% gains Calculating the difference, the result would be a BTC wick to 6000-6050$. Matches with the ascending triangle which is being built and the red channel line on my other post on BTCUSD. With IOTA, ADA and other big coins in falling ... Bitcoin’s (BTC) classification has been a controversial and difficult topic for crypto-enthusiasts, investors, and regulators to reach a consensus on. The digital asset has been compared to a currency, a commodity, an investment asset or even said to have no underlying value. However, from the perspective of regulators, Bitcoin has been mostly associated and studied […] [ad_1] Bitcoin’s became less correlated with other cryptocurrencies in Q2 2019, according to a Binance Research report. According to the 2019 Q2 Crypto-Correlations Review, the second quarter marked the third best quarter the crypto industry has seen since 2014 and the highest growth since 2017. During this period, Bitcoin’s price increased by 300%, pushing its … One noticeable correlation since the pandemic first struck is the fact that gold (XAU), the Australia Dollar (AUD), and the Canadian Dollar (CAD) have all traded almost lock and step. Gold – the most valuable precious metal by market cap – is a unique asset in the financial space due to its position as a commodity or a currency. XAUUSD is ... Bitcoin’s original inventor is known under a pseudonym, Satoshi Nakamoto. As of 2020, the true identity of the person — or organization — that is behind the alias remains unknown. On October 31, 2008, Nakamoto published Bitcoin’s whitepaper, which described in detail how a peer-to-peer, online currency could be implemented. Bitcoin is behaving like the stock market because it's beng treated by its users like a digital commodity rather than a safe haven, right now at least. The massive pullback in markets, the possible threat of a recession... Sitting at home, watching the markets and bitcoin, cruising reddit, and was just thinking, What if... Bitcoin is behaving like the stock market because it's beng treated by ... Binance Coin (BNB) $ 26.47 8.59%. Chainlink (LINK) $ 9.48 4.07%. Bitcoin SV (BSV) $ 164.70 7.41%. Crypto.com Coin (CRO) $ 0.147644 3.3%. Airdrop, ICO’s and Bounties ... A new study from Binance Research shows growing evidence that Bitcoin’s correlation with other crypto has become less and less apparent, at least in Q2 2019.. Bitcoin price is generally found to be in close correlation with altcoin prices. When Bitcoin is on a bull run, such as in 2017, altcoins also tend to move in parabolic patterns, and when Bitcoin does the inverse, altcoins usually do too. Hello friends The market is always moving up or down behind Bitcoin. This time I want to examine the correlation between Eth and Bitcoin. The yellow line in the picture shows the growth of ETH. ETH has started to climb and Bitcoin has tried to climb. But the manipulation of the market by a whale, which I think was from the Exchange, braked the bitcoin. For 10 years, Bitcoin (BTC) has been an extremely volatile asset, exhibiting large drawdowns following some of the largest price rallies recorded in history. Despite its volatility, Bitcoin has not exhibited a significant correlation with other traditional asset classes such as commodities, equities or fixed-income products since its creation in 2009.

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Bitcoin Quater's Drop By 10%. Binance And CoinMarketCap In Focus

Binance users can now buy crypto using their Visa and MasterCard debit and credit cards. Using Koinal, Binance clients can buy five cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Litecoin ... One World Currency? IMF Increasing Special Drawing Rights by 10X? Fed/IMF/Ripple Connection IMF Increasing Special Drawing Rights by 10X? Fed/IMF/Ripple Connection - Duration: 30:06. Show rundown sheet and time stamps: https://crackingcryptocurrency.com/the-decoupling-bitcoin-and-altcoins-correlation-vanishing/ Todays Crypto Comment Givea... https://p4ay.com/ Binance.com PayPal,Inc. Bitcoin is a type of digital currency in which a record of transactions is maintained and new units of currency are... Bitcoin experienced its worst month since departing from its all-time highs 2 years ago, but still it managed to outperform the US stock market in the first quarter of 2020. Major crypto exchange ... Cryptocurrency exchange Binance has launched a new Bitcoin ( BTC ) futures product despite institutional investors showing fresh uncertainty about the future. In a blog post on June 11, Binance ...

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